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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L
      Fri Oct 29 2010 03:10 AM

Quote:

am really starting to worry about the potential of a major hurricane in the central Caribbean in just a few days



I'm right there with you on that. I would probably break down 91L's prospects roughly along these lines:

Top max sustained winds within 91L during the next 7 days (personal best guess odds):

Less than 39MPH: 5%
39 - 50 MPH: 10%
55 - 70 MPH: 25%
75 - 90 MPH: 15%
95 - 110 MPH: 25%
Over 110 MPH: 20%

Or put another way, 95% odds of becoming a named storm, 35% odds of then maxing out as a TS, 60% odds of actually becoming a hurricane, and even 20% odds of becoming a major hurricane, within the next 7 days.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort Fri Oct 29 2010 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L weathernet   Fri Oct 29 2010 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L weathernet   Fri Oct 29 2010 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 29 2010 03:10 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L berrywr   Fri Oct 29 2010 05:55 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L MichaelA   Fri Oct 29 2010 08:58 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 29 2010 10:11 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L doug   Fri Oct 29 2010 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L florida central   Fri Oct 29 2010 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Fri Oct 29 2010 01:59 PM
. * * Unofficially "Tomas" berrywr   Fri Oct 29 2010 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L MichaelA   Thu Oct 28 2010 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L MichaelA   Wed Oct 27 2010 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L MichaelA   Wed Oct 27 2010 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 12:58 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L doug   Thu Oct 28 2010 11:23 AM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L Lamar-Plant City   Thu Oct 28 2010 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L weathernet   Thu Oct 28 2010 07:17 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Perky Late Season Atlantic: 90L, 91L, 92L cieldumort   Thu Oct 28 2010 07:02 PM

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