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Invest 95L near 100% chance to develop, advisories likely to come later today. Hurricane and/or Tropical Storm Watches are possible later tonight for parts of the Windward islands of the Caribbean. Area east of that 30% chance. 94L 30% chance.

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Archives 2010s >> 2010 Forecast Lounge

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

Re: Long Range Pattern
Fri Oct 29 2010 11:26 PM

Obvious I have a little time to kill this evening.....personally I will look at the extended ranges if other forecasters whose expertise is looking at these extended ranges and have continuity; that is day to day and run to run continuity and are eyeballing and discussing it on their end. If you're doing this on your own and you have expertise in this area, by all means! Realistically anything from zero to 120 hours is very, very good. Beyond 120 hours you have to figure out where all the players are now, where they're going to be and at 240 hours that's plain hard. As an analyst I look at everything and that takes time; usually a solid 3 to 4 hours from a cold turkey start. If I'm watching a system that is expected to develop then continuity comes more quickly and all we mets are doing is comparing what "now" was "then" and today what "now" is "now". Confused? Don't be, it's a headache for us too.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Long Range Pattern	weathernet	Fri Oct 29 2010 11:26 PM
Re: Long Range Pattern	berrywr	Fri Oct 29 2010 11:26 PM

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