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danielwAdministrator
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Reged:
Posts: 3527
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Tropical Storm Tomas
      Thu Nov 04 2010 11:55 AM

A bit of the Forecast Side of the Discussion, but noteworthy.

AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE IS
DIVERGENT AND INCONSISTENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS TOMAS MOVING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF NOW
CALL FOR TOMAS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE
TROUGH...WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE 6 HOUR OLD RUNS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...WHICH 6 HR AGO WAS CALLING FOR A
CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...NOW CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD TURN SIMILAR
TO THE ECMWF. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE
TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...BUT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE
CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Tomas Affecting Haiti, DR, Turks & Caicos MikeCAdministrator Thu Nov 04 2010 11:55 AM
. * * Tomas a Hurricane for the 3rd time! berrywr   Sat Nov 06 2010 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Tomas Getting Stronger Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Nov 05 2010 11:43 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Getting Stronger berrywr   Fri Nov 05 2010 02:37 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Getting Stronger berrywr   Fri Nov 05 2010 02:28 AM
. * * Tomas Getting Stronger Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Nov 05 2010 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Tomas Close to Jamaica LoisCane   Thu Nov 04 2010 07:34 PM
. * * Tomas Close to Jamaica Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Nov 04 2010 05:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tomas doug   Thu Nov 04 2010 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tomas danielwAdministrator   Thu Nov 04 2010 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tomas danielwAdministrator   Thu Nov 04 2010 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tomas MichaelA   Wed Nov 03 2010 08:25 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Tomas danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 03 2010 05:24 PM
. * * Re: TD Tomas Ed in Va   Wed Nov 03 2010 04:47 PM
. * * TD Tomas danielwAdministrator   Wed Nov 03 2010 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas Old Sailor   Tue Nov 02 2010 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas MichaelA   Sat Oct 30 2010 06:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Tomas danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 12:41 PM
. * * Hurricane Tomas danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 11:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tomas danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 08:21 AM
. * * Tropical Storm Tomas Vortex danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tomas Forms East of the Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tomas Forms East of the Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Oct 30 2010 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tomas Forms East of the Caribbean MichaelA   Fri Oct 29 2010 08:47 PM

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