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Invest 95L is now being tracked in the central Atlantic, with a 40% chance to develop and very strong model support. Those in the Lesser Antilles of the Caribbean should watch it closely Sunday/Monday. 94L at 20% chance to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks
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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: 2011 Hurricane Forecast Update from NOAA
      Thu May 19 2011 08:48 PM

Actually, with such a wide range, its not much of a forecast. Last year NOAA took some flack from some folks for putting out such a vague outlook but it looks like they have done it again. When the range of named storms is from 12 to 18 the expectation is anywhere from just slightly above normal at 12 to tying for the fourth highest total of all time at 18 (the 1969 total). Is the NOAA forecast for a slightly above normal season, an active season or a hyperactive season? CSU and TSR put out a specified number, so I think their approach qualifies as a defined forecast.

Until the end of May you can still submit your own guesstimate of a defined forecast in the 2011 Storm Forum .
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* 2011 Hurricane Forecast Update from NOAA danielwAdministrator Thu May 19 2011 08:48 PM
. * * Re: Area to Watch MichaelA   Wed Jun 01 2011 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Area to Watch Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 01 2011 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Area to Watch Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 01 2011 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Area to Watch danielwAdministrator   Wed Jun 01 2011 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Area to Watch MichaelA   Wed Jun 01 2011 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Area to Watch Lamar-Plant City   Wed Jun 01 2011 08:30 AM
. * * Re: Area to Watch MikeCAdministrator   Tue May 31 2011 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Area to Watch HCW   Tue May 31 2011 09:43 PM
. * * Re: Area to Watch MikeCAdministrator   Mon May 30 2011 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Area to Watch Storm Hunter   Mon May 30 2011 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Area to Watch WesnWylie   Sun May 29 2011 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Area to Watch MichaelA   Sun May 29 2011 08:41 AM
. * * Re: Area to Watch MikeCAdministrator   Sat May 28 2011 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Area to Watch MichaelA   Sat May 28 2011 07:37 PM
. * * Area to Watch danielwAdministrator   Sat May 28 2011 06:05 PM
. * * SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK danielwAdministrator   Mon May 23 2011 07:11 PM
. * * Florida Heat and SW North Atlantic trough danielwAdministrator   Fri May 20 2011 01:20 PM
. * * Re: 2011 Hurricane Forecast Update from NOAA Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu May 19 2011 08:48 PM
. * * Re: 2011 Hurricane Forecast Update from NOAA GlenJohnson   Thu May 19 2011 08:37 PM

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