2011 Hurricane Forecast Update from NOAA

Updated.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
904 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE NE FL IS RESULTING IN
A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE TREKS SW DURING THE DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM SARASOTA-POLK
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. ANTICIPATE SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SOUTH OF THERE. FORECAST AND GRIDS GENERALLY ON TRACK AT THE
MOMENT. HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE INLAND NORTH/CENTRAL POPS TO 40
AND REARRANGE ZONE GROUPS SOME.

That is one of many update that this system will Probably generate.~danielw

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2011

.DISCUSSION...
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE FL COAST HAS EVOLVED INTO A FULL BLOWN
MCS THAT WILL IMPACT THE NRN CWA AROUND MIDDAY. CIRCULATION CENTER
WAS APPROACHING THE 60NM BY MID MORNING WITH A LINE OF SHRAS DVLPG
AHEAD IT. INITIAL SHRAS OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD WILL BE BRIEF AS
THEY ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A 20-30KT NERLY FLOW...BUT WILL PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE STORM PERIPHERY...LIKELY DUE TO PERIPHERAL
SUBSIDENCE.

UPDATED ZONES TO PUSH PRECIP BACK A FEW HRS OVER THE INTERIOR AND TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL ZONES.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT WED 01 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z JUNE 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 02/1700Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. .

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 03/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE Emphasis added~danielw
C. 03/1000Z
D. 28.0N 94.0W
E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

Edited by danielw (Wed Jun 01 2011 03:50 PM)

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