cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Bay of Campeche System Likely to Remain Weak
Tue Jun 28 2011 01:12 PM
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The system we are tracking is a bit of a duality. As mentioned above, the larger area of disturbed weather consists of one not-very-well-defined, weak cyclone in the southern Bay of Campeche... and a second, smaller and more compact feature clinging to the Gulf of Tehuantepec, over on the Pacific side. But to be clear, the feature on the Pacific side is not Invest 95L. NHC is tracking the Gulf of Tehuantepec thunderstorm complex as a separate entity - not only has it been defined by a loose low level circulation of its own with very persistent thunderstorms within its ill-defined "center," but it is of course in another basin entirely (the Eastern Pacific).
The Invest in the East Pac does look as if has been occasionally hampering the development of the Bay of Campeche low, but there have also been some positive offsets: some occasional enhancements of the upper-level venting of Invest 95L, some increased moisture over Mexico, to name two. Given the ragged nature of Invest 95L, the positive and negative impacts from the East Pac thunderstorm complex have probably been close to a wash, overall.
Recon is now en route to Invest 95L. At last check they were roughly 25N 93W, and they have detected some gusty surface winds out there - up to minimal tropical storm force in fact (in gusts) around 25.1N and 93.77W.
Given that Invest 95L appears to have been traveling fairly slowly - with its approximate "center" possibly reforming from time to time over more and more favorably warm waters (for the past several days much of the center(s) was over land, hindering development), and also given that upper-level winds continue to relax, a window for development into a named tropical cyclone within the next 72 hours seems very possible (NHC giving it a 50% chance of becoming at least a Tropical Depression within the next 48).
Steering currents should continue to take 95L generally west to perhaps west-northwest, but then there are some indications that steering currents could weaken, or even collapse, for a while. This scenario could result in persistent rains over eastern Mexico and/or south Texas.
South Texas will be on the dirty side of the system. While there is a lot of dry air in place over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and a ton of dry air over the entire state of Texas, the large feed of moisture associated with Invest 95L could easily overcome this in a matter of a few days, or less. Residents of south Texas and eastern Mexico should be alert for the distinct possibility of a significant rain event later this week, and potentially into the weekend. Flooding will likely be a key risk from 95L, regardless of whether or not it gets a name.
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