MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Developing Wave Near Veracruz
Mon Jul 11 2011 08:30 AM
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Update - Wednesday, July 13th, 10AM
An active wave in the Southwest Bay of Campeche has been designated as Invest 97L with about a 50/50 chance for additional intensification today prior to landfall. The system is close to shore - near Veracruz , Mexico, and it is moving to the west northwest at 16 knots.
ED
Weather Observations from Veracruz
{{StormLinks|98L|98|2|2011|1|98L}}
12 Jul Update
One of the signs forecasters look for is the situation with the Median-Julian-Oscillation (aka MJO) and signs are pointing to a possible early Cape Verde season the latter half of July into August. Which means in a few weeks we'll need to start looking east for signs of development.
Right now, there is a wave east of the Caribbean, which is worth watching to see if it survives the east Caribbean, and another in the western Caribbean that is approaching land and likely will make landfall well before it can develop. Both systems have a 10% chance for development in the next 48 hours.
A front over the Carolinas right now is worth watching to see if convection gets cut off and left in the Atlantic, if so it is possible for development to occur off the coast of the Carolinas late this week, but it really depends on how far the energy gets offshore.
None of these systems are likely to develop into much.
Original Update
Mid July is approaching in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, and this period historically has been mixed, either very slow, or somewhat active.
This year, July appears to be on the slower side, at least so far.
There is one area east of the Caribbean which could develop later, right now it has a 10% chance, but very little model support for anything in the near term.
Those in the southern windward islands in the Eastern Caribbean will want to look for some rain from the area.
It may be worth watching later to see if it survives its time in the eastern Caribbean.
Outside of this, there really isn't much going on in the Atlantic.
Toward the end of July you start to look further and further east for development, and continue to look elsewhere in the basin. Most activity usually starts to occur until August (Mid to late August in particular).
That said, there really isn't much going on in the Atlantic tropics right now, and probably won't be for another week or so, but it's worth it to continue to monitor for "surprise" systems.
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