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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline
      Sun Jul 17 2011 01:15 PM

Right now the system is moving in a Southerly direction and that throws almost all of the models out. At least the 00Z models from last night.
The following comment is Forecast Lounge material. I place it here to tie into Edski's post. Mike and Ed feel free to move it.

The current models seem to have split. Motions are west, north and east.
BAMD is probably picking up on the upper ridge currently over the Midwest moving into the SE US in a few days. Deflecting 98L to the west. GFDL wants to skirt the ridge, against the flow, and head for the NC Coast. LBAR is off to the NW, toward Jacksonville, and HWRF is a fish spinner.

If the system were to move west it's chances of intensifying in the short term, would/ should be less than in the other directions.
Based on an overland track! A few systems in the past have intensified over Southern Florida

Edited by danielw (Sun Jul 17 2011 01:19 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Bret Losing Strength,Moving Away from US MikeCAdministrator Sun Jul 17 2011 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US Rich B   Tue Jul 19 2011 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US cieldumort   Tue Jul 19 2011 06:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US tcatron565   Tue Jul 19 2011 12:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2011 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US MikeCAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2011 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US WeatherNut   Mon Jul 18 2011 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US doug   Mon Jul 18 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US weathernet   Mon Jul 18 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2011 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Slowly Strengthening, Moving Away from US adam s   Mon Jul 18 2011 01:56 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Bret danielwAdministrator   Mon Jul 18 2011 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Bret Form off Florida, Likely No Threat to Mainland typhoon_tip   Mon Jul 18 2011 01:11 AM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline WeatherNut   Sun Jul 17 2011 11:55 PM
. * * Re: 98L now Tropical Depression Two danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 09:49 PM
. * * Re: 98L now Tropical Depression Two BillD   Sun Jul 17 2011 09:20 PM
. * * 98L now Tropical Depression Two danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline Hugh   Sun Jul 17 2011 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 08:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline Hugh   Sun Jul 17 2011 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline vineyardsaker   Sun Jul 17 2011 08:19 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline LoisCane   Sun Jul 17 2011 08:15 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 08:13 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 07:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline WeatherNut   Sun Jul 17 2011 07:50 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 07:17 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 07:08 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 06:54 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 06:37 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 05:59 PM
. * * Re: 98L Continues to Organize Off East Florida Coastline typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 17 2011 03:32 PM
. * * Wave approaching Grenada danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline vineyardsaker   Sun Jul 17 2011 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline Edski   Sun Jul 17 2011 12:22 PM
. * * Re: Watching 98L Off East Florida Coastline MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 17 2011 01:57 AM

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