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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 301 (Idalia) , Major: 301 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 301 (Idalia) Major: 301 (Idalia)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Recon
      Thu Jul 28 2011 12:29 PM

This is my first post on the website this season so let me first say hello to everybody. I've looked at the new 12Z package and read everybody's post as of noon ET.

The shear over the storm is currently between 10 & 15 knots from the north and northeast with less than 5 knots in a generally north to south axis just ahead of its track. The amount of shear is not enough to impose any strengthening issues at this time.

Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry air along the track and I did look at the most current dry air imagery from CIMMS and there is dry air indicated to the west and less so to the NW of the storm and particularly over land where almost the entire state of TX is experiencing an "Exceptional" drought.

As per NHC, the models are split; half along a NW track, the other half more west.

The vortex structure; it is in fact not aligned and as satellite imagery indicates...it's not too well put together and what appears as the center on satellite is the mid-level center displaced from the surface which is to the northeast under convection.

Not to stray too much from what I posted over on the Flhurricane FaceBook page...Don may become a minimum hurricane but it's greatest benefit is for it to be a strong Tropical Storm and it's bands to gradually open outward as it spirals downward following landfall and provide the beneficial rainfall TX needs.

Edited by danielw (Thu Jul 28 2011 12:38 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Don Heading Toward Texas MikeCAdministrator Thu Jul 28 2011 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Pressure Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 11:33 PM
. * * 11 PM danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Windshear danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 10:18 PM
. * * Re: Windshear MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Windshear typhoon_tip   Thu Jul 28 2011 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Windshear MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Windshear MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Windshear MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Windshear MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Windshear berrywr   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:29 PM
. * * Re: Intensification MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Intensification Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Windshear MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Windshear cieldumort   Thu Jul 28 2011 06:35 PM
. * * Don danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 06:28 PM
. * * Re: Windshear MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Windshear MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 06:12 PM
. * * Re: Windshear WesnWylie   Thu Jul 28 2011 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Windshear danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Windshear Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Recon Fairhopian   Thu Jul 28 2011 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Recon berrywr   Thu Jul 28 2011 12:29 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Recon MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Recon Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 11:45 AM
. * * Re: Recon WesnWylie   Thu Jul 28 2011 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon MichaelA   Thu Jul 28 2011 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Recon hogrunr   Thu Jul 28 2011 11:11 AM
. * * Re: Recon WeatherNut   Thu Jul 28 2011 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Recon hogrunr   Thu Jul 28 2011 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Recon hogrunr   Thu Jul 28 2011 10:30 AM
. * * Re: Recon MichaelA   Thu Jul 28 2011 09:25 AM
. * * Re: Recon MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 09:25 AM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 09:12 AM
. * * Don Track danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 09:03 AM
. * * Re: Don Vortex 1 WesnWylie   Thu Jul 28 2011 08:50 AM
. * * Re: Don Vortex 1 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 08:44 AM
. * * Don Vortex 1 danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico danielwAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jul 28 2011 05:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 27 2011 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico WesnWylie   Wed Jul 27 2011 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico WeatherNut   Wed Jul 27 2011 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jul 27 2011 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico danielwAdministrator   Wed Jul 27 2011 04:55 PM

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