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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: Windshear
Fri Jul 29 2011 12:32 AM

Quote:

Official 8PM position is 24.7N 91.8W, the NHC in the advisory considered it a westward jog. More data from the planes coming later should be interesting.

Also the Central Atlantic wave (no invest yet) has a 20% chance for development over the next 48 hours, so we may go from Don right into tracking another system.

I was considering the possibility that this was a center recapture/reposition as causal to that apparent jog.

Impressively cold persisting quasi-CDO feature, most likely attributed to the fact that the system is currently passing close a region of very high oceanic heat content - with significant thermocline depth as well. This is providing a source of high fuel input that is compensating for any dry air impacts, as well.

So long as we have a TC with a closed circulation, quick pressure falls would likely have to occur given to these powerfully sustaining updrafts as evidenced by IR channels. Most guidance keeps this rather pedestrian; let us hope that is verified. We have seen in the past that pretty satellite presentations are not always confirmed. My personal hope for this was that a pedestrian system would make its way into interior TX and eventually get caught up in the monsoonal flow into OK and other areas that are parched dry and in severe drought.

Currently the wind overlay at TPC, as coarse as it may be, is indicating that the region of impacting NNE shear is bypassing now to the east as the TC moves away; that may also be helping said recapture scenario because the middle and upper level turrets are no longer leaning away from the llv eddy. Fascinating.

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Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Don Heading Toward Texas	MikeC	Fri Jul 29 2011 12:32 AM
Re: Pressure	Ed Dunham	Fri Jul 29 2011 03:33 AM
11 PM	danielw	Fri Jul 29 2011 02:37 AM
Re: Windshear	danielw	Fri Jul 29 2011 02:18 AM
Re: Windshear	MikeC	Fri Jul 29 2011 02:12 AM
Re: Windshear	typhoon_tip	Fri Jul 29 2011 12:32 AM
Re: Windshear	MikeC	Fri Jul 29 2011 12:31 AM
Re: Windshear	MikeC	Fri Jul 29 2011 12:17 AM
Re: Windshear	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 11:53 PM
Re: Windshear	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 11:44 PM
Re: Windshear	berrywr	Thu Jul 28 2011 11:29 PM
Re: Intensification	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 11:22 PM
Re: Intensification	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 28 2011 11:15 PM
Re: Windshear	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 11:00 PM
Re: Windshear	cieldumort	Thu Jul 28 2011 10:35 PM
Don	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 10:28 PM
Re: Windshear	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 10:21 PM
Re: Windshear	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 10:12 PM
Re: Windshear	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 28 2011 07:33 PM
Re: Windshear	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 06:12 PM
Re: Windshear	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 28 2011 05:33 PM
Re: Recon	Fairhopian	Thu Jul 28 2011 05:25 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 04:49 PM
Re: Recon	berrywr	Thu Jul 28 2011 04:29 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 04:27 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 04:02 PM
Re: Recon	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 03:51 PM
Re: Recon	Ed Dunham	Thu Jul 28 2011 03:45 PM
Re: Recon	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 28 2011 03:16 PM
Re: Recon	MichaelA	Thu Jul 28 2011 03:11 PM
Re: Recon	hogrunr	Thu Jul 28 2011 03:11 PM
Re: Recon	WeatherNut	Thu Jul 28 2011 03:09 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 02:56 PM
Re: Recon	hogrunr	Thu Jul 28 2011 02:50 PM
Re: Recon	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 02:34 PM
Re: Recon	hogrunr	Thu Jul 28 2011 02:30 PM
Re: Recon	MichaelA	Thu Jul 28 2011 01:25 PM
Re: Recon	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 01:25 PM
Recon	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 01:12 PM
Don Track	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 01:03 PM
Re: Don Vortex 1	WesnWylie	Thu Jul 28 2011 12:50 PM
Re: Don Vortex 1	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 12:44 PM
Don Vortex 1	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 12:26 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Thu Jul 28 2011 11:54 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 10:46 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 09:42 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico	MikeC	Thu Jul 28 2011 12:24 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico	WesnWylie	Wed Jul 27 2011 11:55 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico	WeatherNut	Wed Jul 27 2011 11:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico	MikeC	Wed Jul 27 2011 10:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Don forms in Southern Gulf of Mexico	danielw	Wed Jul 27 2011 08:55 PM

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