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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
Meteorologist

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Posts: 576

Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing
Sun Jul 31 2011 08:49 PM

The longer these disparate vorticity maxims interfere with the others ability to become dominant the farther west this entire region will move along with the environmental flow. When/if a TC becomes better organized its vertical structure will then as a whole be more prone to moving along with the steering level wind field, which is probably why many of the models move this through the northern Leewards. There is already a slight north bias of the models recent runs and it may be because they are keying in on the vortex closer to 52w/14n, and by supposition are missing the limiting interaction with the vortex near 58w/13n. Already we begin to question the robustness of the GFDL and HWRF 12z runs, at least in the early time intervals. It seems they are always on a fast bias with the spin up momentum.

My personal belief is that the system near 52/14 will become the dominant of the two, and probably absorb the westerly center based purely on PGF becoming overwhelming and shredding/shearing the low-level vorticity associated with 58/13 (timing all that is next to impossible). The latter cyclone aspect has a clearer and larger mass associated already with its circulation. Caveat, this based purely on satellite observation.

Recon report should be interesting/revealing. Satellite can lie. We have seen plenty of systems with clear and present cyclonic motion in cloud field, but then recon fails to close off circulation, before... It is possible that the west center has a better low level circulation, where the east system has a better elevated/mid level vortex with comparably less low level involvement. In other wods ... a big mess. If that is the case I no longer have a personal belief!

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Large Wave East of Caribbean Looking Better this Morning	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 08:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 11:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	Joeyfl	Mon Aug 01 2011 11:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	Joeyfl	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:49 PM
Tropical Storm Emily	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:35 PM
Re: Geography and Other Things	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:25 PM
Re: Geography and Other Things	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:16 PM
Geography and Other Things	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 01 2011 09:46 PM
Re: Depression	WeatherNut	Mon Aug 01 2011 09:38 PM
Re: Depression	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 09:01 PM
Re: Depression	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 08:58 PM
Re: Depression	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 08:51 PM
Re: Depression	Rich B	Mon Aug 01 2011 08:40 PM
Re: Depression	Bloodstar	Mon Aug 01 2011 08:24 PM
Re: Depression	metwannabe	Mon Aug 01 2011 08:22 PM
Depression	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 07:49 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	adam s	Mon Aug 01 2011 07:04 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:51 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:35 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:24 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:21 PM
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:47 PM
Tropical Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:39 PM
Recon	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:03 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	doug	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:56 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:04 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 03:36 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 03:24 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	adam s	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:12 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MichaelA	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:03 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	metwannabe	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:03 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 12:38 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	berrywr	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:15 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 10:35 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 31 2011 09:37 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 09:13 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 09:03 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 31 2011 08:49 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	renka	Sun Jul 31 2011 08:39 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Rich B	Sun Jul 31 2011 08:35 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 08:26 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 08:15 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 08:05 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:44 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:41 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:34 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:18 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:13 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:00 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 06:37 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 06:33 PM
Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 06:30 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:50 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:35 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:27 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	scottsvb	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:19 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	WesnWylie	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:19 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:59 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:56 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:44 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:33 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:20 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:40 PM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 02:44 PM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 11:55 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 11:36 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:35 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:09 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 30 2011 06:23 PM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sat Jul 30 2011 01:29 PM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sat Jul 30 2011 01:22 PM

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