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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 299 (Idalia) , Major: 299 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 299 (Idalia) Major: 299 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

berrywr
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL

Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing
Sun Jul 31 2011 10:15 PM

I took a look at NHC's position and the CIMMS Wnd Shear Analysis; at 31/2345Z the position of 13.5N 53.0W is directly under the 200/300 mb Upper Ridge. As you move west along the upper ridge axis located along 14N latitude winds are 15 knots from the south and along 16N latitude winds aloft increase to near 30 knots from the southwest. A wind surge may be construed as a gust front; outflow boundary from thunderstorms. Overland we have what are called gravity waves...rapid pressure falls creating gradience behind convective complexes which make for some very strong wind conditions followed by rapid pressure increases and winds return to calm/normal. Someone who is more versed with tropical weather may know more about this phenomena than I. This is a broad area and I wouldn't be surprised like Tip mentioned multiple surface & mid-level vortices...a big mess; I agree. In regards to the north bias the models are running it may be in response to the deeping east coast USA longwave trough in the days ahead. There's simply no way to know in the here and now how much amplification there will be of this trough into the tropics.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Large Wave East of Caribbean Looking Better this Morning	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 10:15 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 07:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	Joeyfl	Mon Aug 01 2011 07:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Emily	Joeyfl	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:49 PM
Tropical Storm Emily	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:35 PM
Re: Geography and Other Things	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:25 PM
Re: Geography and Other Things	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 06:16 PM
Geography and Other Things	Ed Dunham	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:46 PM
Re: Depression	WeatherNut	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:38 PM
Re: Depression	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 05:01 PM
Re: Depression	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:58 PM
Re: Depression	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:51 PM
Re: Depression	Rich B	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:40 PM
Re: Depression	Bloodstar	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:24 PM
Re: Depression	metwannabe	Mon Aug 01 2011 04:22 PM
Depression	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 03:49 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	adam s	Mon Aug 01 2011 03:04 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:51 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:35 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:24 PM
Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 02:21 PM
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 01:47 PM
Tropical Forecast Discussion	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 01:39 PM
Recon	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 01:03 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	doug	Mon Aug 01 2011 12:56 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Mon Aug 01 2011 12:04 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hawkeyewx	Mon Aug 01 2011 11:36 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	scottsvb	Mon Aug 01 2011 11:24 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	adam s	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:12 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MichaelA	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:03 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	metwannabe	Mon Aug 01 2011 10:03 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Mon Aug 01 2011 08:38 AM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	berrywr	Sun Jul 31 2011 10:15 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 06:35 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Ed Dunham	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:37 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:13 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 05:03 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	typhoon_tip	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:49 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	renka	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:39 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Rich B	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:35 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:26 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:15 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 04:05 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:44 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:41 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:34 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:18 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:13 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 03:00 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 02:37 PM
Re: Great discussion out of PR	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 02:33 PM
Great discussion out of PR	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 02:30 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:50 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:35 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:27 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	scottsvb	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:19 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	WesnWylie	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:19 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:59 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:56 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:44 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	Hugh	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:33 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 12:20 PM
Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 11:40 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sun Jul 31 2011 10:44 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:55 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sun Jul 31 2011 07:36 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	LoisCane	Sun Jul 31 2011 01:35 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sat Jul 30 2011 11:09 PM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	typhoon_tip	Sat Jul 30 2011 02:23 PM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	danielw	Sat Jul 30 2011 09:29 AM
Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow	MikeC	Sat Jul 30 2011 09:22 AM

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