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Tonight "the calm before the storm" and time to finish preps. Even now, high precipitable water and instability values ahead of Beryl are triggering flash flood threats with rainfall rates up to over 3"/Hr #Beryl #TXWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 311 (Idalia) , Major: 311 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 311 (Idalia) Major: 311 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#34A 7:00 am EDT
24.9N 94.3W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 995mb
Moving:
Nw at 13 mph
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danielwAdministrator
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 3526
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion
      Mon Aug 01 2011 01:47 PM

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
954 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2011 (edited~danielw)

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 05 2011 - 12Z MON AUG 08 2011

...THE MODELS ARE ALSO STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN THE
VICINITY OF 55-60W LONGITUDE.

OPERATIONAL MODEL TRACKS RANGE FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF IN THE 00Z UKMET TO E OF THE FL PENINSULA IN THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF.

YESTERDAYS NHC/HPC COORDINATED TRACK TO THE E OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY DAY 6 SUN IS NOW EASTWARD OF THE CURRENT MODEL ENVELOPE.

PREFER TO AWAIT TODAYS 17Z COORDINATION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES... WITH THE UPDATED PRELIM FORECAST DEPICTING ONLY A MODEST
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG WITH
STRENGTH SIMILAR TO CONTINUITY.
CONSULT THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING THIS FEATURE.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Large Wave East of Caribbean Looking Better this Morning MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 01 2011 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Joeyfl   Mon Aug 01 2011 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Joeyfl   Mon Aug 01 2011 06:49 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Emily danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Geography and Other Things MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Geography and Other Things MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 06:16 PM
. * * Geography and Other Things Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Depression WeatherNut   Mon Aug 01 2011 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Depression danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 05:01 PM
. * * Re: Depression MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Depression Hawkeyewx   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Depression Rich B   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Depression Bloodstar   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Depression metwannabe   Mon Aug 01 2011 04:22 PM
. * * Depression danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion adam s   Mon Aug 01 2011 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion scottsvb   Mon Aug 01 2011 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion Hawkeyewx   Mon Aug 01 2011 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion scottsvb   Mon Aug 01 2011 02:21 PM
. * * Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 01:47 PM
. * * Tropical Forecast Discussion danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 01:39 PM
. * * Recon danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing doug   Mon Aug 01 2011 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 12:04 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing Hawkeyewx   Mon Aug 01 2011 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing scottsvb   Mon Aug 01 2011 11:24 AM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing adam s   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing MichaelA   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing metwannabe   Mon Aug 01 2011 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 01 2011 08:38 AM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing berrywr   Sun Jul 31 2011 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing Hugh   Sun Jul 31 2011 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing typhoon_tip   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing renka   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR Rich B   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR Hugh   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:44 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:41 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR Hugh   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 03:00 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Great discussion out of PR danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 02:33 PM
. * * Great discussion out of PR LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 02:30 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing Hugh   Sun Jul 31 2011 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing scottsvb   Sun Jul 31 2011 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing WesnWylie   Sun Jul 31 2011 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing Hugh   Sun Jul 31 2011 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing Hugh   Sun Jul 31 2011 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 07:55 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jul 31 2011 07:36 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow LoisCane   Sun Jul 31 2011 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow typhoon_tip   Sat Jul 30 2011 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Wave East of Caribbean Likely to Develop Today or Tomorrow MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 30 2011 09:22 AM

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