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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4545
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
      Tue Aug 02 2011 02:47 AM

The 11PM mostly keeps everything the same, the track adjusted slightly to the right. There is a great deal of uncertainty, indeed the official discussion brings up the weaker system keeping it further west, vs the stronger system heading north into the ridge weakness sooner. In short, not much different from the earlier advisory.

My initial thoughts are that Emily will stay to the east of Florida. Looking at the 500MB setup in the 12Z Euro, the pattern looks a lot like the 18Z GFS, with a weakness developing in the western Atlantic. Not a huge trough, per se, but enough of a weakness to take Emily slowly northward after coming out of the Greater Antilles. But this really depends on how far west it goes, if it is further west than the forecast track states in the morning, Florida gets back into it again, if Hispaniola does not destroy the system.

As far as intensity is concerned, just gradual slow either maintenance or slight strengthening for the near term. Upper air just isn't good to support any rapid increases. Maybe a few random bursts from time to time until it gets out of the Caribbean.

We'll update in the morning.


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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Heading West Northwest in the Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 02 2011 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Emily Heads For ?? scottsvb   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Emily Heads For ?? LoisCane   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Emily Heads For ?? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:04 AM
. * * Re: Emily Joeyfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Emily MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily Lamar-Plant City   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean Joeyfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean JMII   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:21 PM
. * * Emily danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean adam s   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean WeatherNut   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean JoshuaK   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean Joeyfl   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean WeatherNut   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean weathernet   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean tpratch   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean adam s   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean JMII   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean MichaelA   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean adam s   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean adam s   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean weathernet   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean typhoon_tip   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:04 AM

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