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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
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scottsvb
Weather Master


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Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean
      Tue Aug 02 2011 04:04 PM

Latest fix from 1 hour ago shows it went from 10 to 5 miles 1,500 ft center to surface center with 1 mile accuracy. Winds are near 45-50mph.. but pressure supports 35-40mph system.. I would then compromise on a 40-45mph storm with gust near 50.

Latest GFS out to 48hrs has landfall near DR-Haiti boarder... it does another blow up of convection tonight and pressure down to 1005mb by Weds morning and maybe even lower by landfall later Weds night.(GFS maps usually do show a higher pressure then what a system really is)...

We will see what happens to the system tonight. I think what is more important though than the models is the near term pressure of the system. Lets see if it gets its act together and pressure drops.. once and if that does occur..we can determine what this might do and where it may go. Right now.. any decrease in convection could weaken this to a LLT with a midlevel dying circulation.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Heading West Northwest in the Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 02 2011 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Heads For ?? scottsvb   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Emily Heads For ?? LoisCane   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Emily Heads For ?? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:04 AM
. * * Re: Emily Joeyfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Emily MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily Lamar-Plant City   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean Joeyfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean JMII   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:21 PM
. * * Emily danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 07:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean adam s   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean WeatherNut   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean JoshuaK   Tue Aug 02 2011 06:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean Joeyfl   Tue Aug 02 2011 05:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean WeatherNut   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean weathernet   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean tpratch   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean adam s   Tue Aug 02 2011 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean JMII   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean MichaelA   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean adam s   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean adam s   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean weathernet   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean OrlandoDan   Tue Aug 02 2011 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 02:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean LoisCane   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 02 2011 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Emily Forms in Far Eastern Caribbean typhoon_tip   Tue Aug 02 2011 12:04 AM

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