Emily Heading West Northwest in the Caribbean

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:13Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2011
Storm Name: Emily (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:48:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15Â°38'N 64Â°47'W (15.6333N 64.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 210 miles (338 km) to the SSE (156Â°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NE (52Â°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 113Â° at 51kts (From the ESE at ~ 58.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE (52Â°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24Â°C (75Â°F) at a pressure alt. of 305m (1,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23Â°C (73Â°F) at a pressure alt. of 307m (1,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18Â°C (64Â°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:35:10Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

Notes:
The Inside Eye/ Center Temp and the Outside Eye/Center Temps are opposite what they should be. Inside Eye/ Center Temp should be equal to or Higher than the outside Eye/ Center Temp. This gives some indication that the system isn't fully functioning as a vacuum.
The dry air entrainment on the SW side could be causing this.

Centers are within 5 miles of each other now.
Observation is from 1000 feet above sea level so the Maximum Flight Level Wind: 51kts (~ 58.7mph) should equate to a surface wind speed of 53 to 54 mph. Using a 90% reduction factor. After checking. The 54 mph is what the SFMR surface wind speed estimate is at the 58.7 mph spot wind location.

Edited by danielw (Tue Aug 02 2011 06:33 PM)

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