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#Beryl strengthening east of the Caribbean Islands, may be a hurricane tomorrow. Barbados is now under a Hurricane Watch as Beryl may be there Monday. Area east of Beryl up to 60% and 94L at 40%.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 304 (Idalia) , Major: 304 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia) Major: 304 (Idalia)
TS Beryl
ADV#3A 1:00 pm EDT
9.8N 46.8W
Wind: 60MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
W at 21 mph
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weathernet
Storm Tracker


Reged:
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
      Wed Aug 03 2011 10:38 AM

No doubt, Emily's LLC would appear to be entirely decoupled from any remaining mid level center ( or al least whatever extent of primary convection farther east ). Shear at the moment is having a real impact and inflow is likely restricted due to HIspanola as well. Will assume that NHC might keep Emily as a weakened and minimal T.S. for the next advisory, given the substantial LLC and the typical time it takes to "wind down"; that and the fact that there remains the possibility of refiring of convection close to the westward tracking center.

Beyond continuity and perhaps only a slight chance of short term recovery, I would imagine that Emily will be downgraded to a depression later in the day/evening. In fact, it may well be downgraded to an open wave by this evening, however that should not mean that this remnant vigerous wave is done. Some models still want to either regenerate the mid level remant of Emily and continue to track it across Hispanola, or that the remnant vorticity would still reform either south or north of Cuba in the next couple days. Even if the later were to occur and Florida and/or the Bahamas were to come back into play, the significance of this happening would now appear as more of a rain impact than from wind.

It would seem that barring some pretty unusual set of circumstances though, there should not be a major risk to the U.S. from Emily unless reorganization were to occur AND a stalled reorganizing system were to intensify from little in a hurry.

Edited by weathernet (Wed Aug 03 2011 10:43 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Moves Slowly Westward Future Unclear MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 03 2011 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 04 2011 05:57 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 04 2011 04:57 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 04 2011 04:53 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath OrlandoDan   Thu Aug 04 2011 03:49 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath Bloodstar   Thu Aug 04 2011 03:44 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath weathernet   Thu Aug 04 2011 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Current Location weathernet   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:49 AM
. * * Re: Current Location danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Current Location IsoFlame   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath Bloodstar   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:13 AM
. * * Re: Current Location danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath IsoFlame   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:06 AM
. * * Current Location danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath Bev   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:36 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath scottsvb   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:35 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath LoisCane   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath Lamar-Plant City   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:12 AM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:53 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath scottsvb   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:21 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath hogrunr   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:12 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath ralphfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath M.A.   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath scottsvb   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath WeatherNut   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath berrywr   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath M.A.   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Current Model Swath LoisCane   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:34 PM
. * * Current Model Swath danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola metwannabe   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Lamar-Plant City   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:43 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Hugh   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:32 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Lamar-Plant City   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola WeatherNut   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Joeyfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola WeatherNut   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola metwannabe   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Lamar-Plant City   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MichaelA   Wed Aug 03 2011 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola doug   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:32 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola JMII   Wed Aug 03 2011 03:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola weathernet   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola WesnWylie   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:51 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola weathernet   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola stormtiger   Wed Aug 03 2011 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola WeatherNut   Wed Aug 03 2011 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola BayCoGator   Wed Aug 03 2011 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Joeyfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola scottsvb   Wed Aug 03 2011 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola scottsvb   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola weathernet   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:38 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola JMII   Wed Aug 03 2011 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola adam s   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Joeyfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 09:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Joeyfl   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:19 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola Cape Weather   Wed Aug 03 2011 08:04 AM
. * * Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 03 2011 07:19 AM

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