This is twice now that Emily has stalled despite the models saying she should go NW, thus their guidance is suspect. Outflow looks like its improving and the ridge over the SE US appears to be weaker today. The core of Emily is still a mess, not sure if its the mountains, the shear or the dry air, but all convection N to NW of the storm is gone. Hard to gauge any motion due to lack of any defining center like structure. Its still a complete toss up as what is going to happen, the good news is this slow motion means she is still several days away from the US and unless she steers clear of two land masses one can assume a weak storm is all we'll see.
However I wouldn't be shocked to see her shoot the gap and intensify, then just as suddenly be swept out to sea. Or drag west over the Cuba and die off completely. Currently she appears to be stuck against the shear that she was fighting yesterday, but there is a weak spot ahead (about the 2PM Friday forecast position)... so it looks like we have another 24 hours of wait-n-see before any firm assessment can be made.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for: David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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