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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 309 (Idalia) , Major: 309 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 309 (Idalia) Major: 309 (Idalia)
Hur Beryl
ADV#25 10:00 pm EDT
19.5N 84.3W
Wind: 110MPH
Pres: 974mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
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CDMOrlando
Weather Hobbyist


Reged:
Posts: 57
Loc: seminole cnty florida
Re: Emily Falls Apart
      Sat Aug 06 2011 12:55 AM

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1235 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011

EMILYS REMNANTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST...
PREFERENCE: 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE

OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS AND BRINGS ITS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER INTO FLORIDA WHICH THEN SITS AND SPINS ACROSS THE LOWER KISSIMMEE RIVER VALLEY/JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 12Z CANADIAN/18Z AND 00Z GFS/00Z NAM RECURVE THIS SYSTEM QUICKER OUT TO SEA THAN THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SOLUTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WHICH FITS THE HISTORY OF EMILY SO FAR...SIMILAR TO A 00Z NAM/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE...SHOULD WORK OUT THE BEST. NO MATTER WHICH PIECE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS CHOSEN...THE SURFACE SIGNATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOST BY SUNDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONDITIONS NEAR THE SYSTEM BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT FROM A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STANDPOINT.. .BUT NHC THINKS OTHERWISE.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Reforms as Depression, Moving Out To Sea MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 06 2011 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart, Remnants Struggle to Reform danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 06 2011 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart, Remnants Struggle to Reform Rich B   Sat Aug 06 2011 04:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart, Remnants Struggle to Reform JMII   Sat Aug 06 2011 04:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart, Remnants Struggle to Reform cieldumort   Sat Aug 06 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart Joeyfl   Sat Aug 06 2011 03:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart Hugh   Sat Aug 06 2011 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart M.A.   Sat Aug 06 2011 02:27 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart Joeyfl   Sat Aug 06 2011 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart Hugh   Sat Aug 06 2011 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart Joeyfl   Sat Aug 06 2011 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart GuppieGrouper   Sat Aug 06 2011 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart Hugh   Sat Aug 06 2011 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 06 2011 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart Hugh   Sat Aug 06 2011 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart MichaelA   Sat Aug 06 2011 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart scottsvb   Sat Aug 06 2011 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 06 2011 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 06 2011 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 06 2011 09:15 AM
. * * Re: Emily Falls Apart CDMOrlando   Sat Aug 06 2011 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 05 2011 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 05 2011 07:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest M.A.   Fri Aug 05 2011 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 05 2011 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest adam s   Fri Aug 05 2011 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Fri Aug 05 2011 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest JMII   Fri Aug 05 2011 01:50 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Fri Aug 05 2011 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MichaelA   Fri Aug 05 2011 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Fri Aug 05 2011 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest NewWatcher   Fri Aug 05 2011 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest BayCoGator   Fri Aug 05 2011 12:54 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest NewWatcher   Fri Aug 05 2011 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Fri Aug 05 2011 12:13 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MichaelA   Fri Aug 05 2011 10:41 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest weathernet   Fri Aug 05 2011 09:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MichaelA   Fri Aug 05 2011 08:27 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest OrlandoDan   Fri Aug 05 2011 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Fri Aug 05 2011 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MichaelA   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest M.A.   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:49 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest WeatherNut   Thu Aug 04 2011 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest B_from_NC   Thu Aug 04 2011 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest Random Chaos   Thu Aug 04 2011 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest B_from_NC   Thu Aug 04 2011 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest WesnWylie   Thu Aug 04 2011 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Thu Aug 04 2011 02:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 02:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest adam s   Thu Aug 04 2011 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest JMII   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:48 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest WeatherNut   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Emily Meandering South of Haiti Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:17 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest adam s   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 11:07 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest danielwAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MichaelA   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:28 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest scottsvb   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:20 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest JMII   Thu Aug 04 2011 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest adam s   Thu Aug 04 2011 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest doug   Thu Aug 04 2011 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest Rich B   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:56 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest Owlguin   Thu Aug 04 2011 07:25 AM
. * * Re: Emily Moving West Northwest Random Chaos   Thu Aug 04 2011 06:57 AM

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