Tropical Storm Harvey Makes Landfall in Belize

Update, Saturday, August 20th, 4PM EDT
Tropical Storm Harvey has made landfall near Dangriga Town in Belize. It is another named system this year to continue the streak of storms that have failed to reach hurricane strength. Hopefully this luck will continue with the system now nearing the Leeward islands in the Caribbean.

This system has a 90% chance to develop over the next two days, and likely will tonight or sometime tomorrow. Recon aircraft is currently in the system sampling it for any sign of a low level circulation center.

This system is large, and likely to grow slowly is still worth watching for those in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Eastern Cuba, the Southern Bahamas, Southeastern US Coasts, including Florida, and the North Central Gulf of Mexico coasts through the week. The more reliable models still have been persisting in the idea that it copuld possibly make landfall in the US, and odds still favor that it will. (Although at what strength is very uncertain, as it depends on the path it does or does not take over the Caribbean islands).

Once the system gets named and develops there may be a better idea on what this system may actually do, see the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on that.

Martinique Radar recording for 97l

Update, Saturday, August 20th, 745AM EDT

Harvey continues to strengthen and is now a 60MPH Tropical Storm moving west toward Belize, it is possible for Harvey to become this year's first hurricane, those along Belize may want to prepare for a category 1 hurricane approach. Officially, there are currently Tropical Storm Warnings up for the area.

97L has a 70% chance to become a storm or depression over the next two days, most likely tomorrow at the current rate. Odds with the long range models have persistently continued to favor some sort of land interaction with the Central Gulf or Florida (As opposed to a recurve) , and therefore it must be watched closely for late next week in the Southeast and Northern Gulf to see if the patterns persist. Once it develops there may be a better idea on what this system may actually do, see the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on that.

Those in the eastern Caribbean will want to watch the system extremely closely as it approaches over the next few days.

Update, Friday, August 19th, 2PM EDT
TD#8 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey.

Also another wave in the far eastern Atlantic, off Africa was just designated Invest 99l.

Flhurricane Belize long term Radar recording of Harvey (2011) approach

Update, Friday, August 19th, 11AM EDT
Recon found a center a few miles further northeast, i.e., a little more offshore, so TD8 now has a better chance of becoming a Tropical Storm later tonight. The cyclone should pass over Roatan Island tonight with landfall in southern Belize on Saturday - possibly as a 50mph TS. Heavy rainfall likely over Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and portions of the Yucatan. Watches/Warnings are as follows:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS
* THE COAST OF GUATEMALA
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM DANGRIGA TOWN SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/ GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA GRUESA SOUTHWARD TO CHETUMAL

Invest 97L did develop additional convection during the night, however, a better organization has not occurred due to the rapid westward motion of the system.
ED

Update, Thursday, August 18th, 11PM EDT
Invest 93L has been upgraded to Tropical Depression 8, located over 400 miles east southeast of Belize City with sustained winds of 30 knots. The TD is moving to the west at 10 knots and has a limited timeframe to strengthen before interacting with the north shore of Honduras. Its going to be close as to whether the TD can attain Tropical Storm strength tonight or on Friday prior to final landfall in southern Belize.

There hasn't been any significant change to the structure of Invest 97L and a new system, Invest 98L, has emerged off the west African coast.
ED

Original Post
The system approaching the Western Caribbean Sea (Invest 93L) is a small system (so far that has been the standard for this season) with good convection and some lingering dry air to the west. The system is located southwest of Jamaica and well east of Roatan Island, Honduras, and is moving to the west at about 15 knots. Chances for additional development are high and the system could become a Tropical Depression later this evening or tonight. Probable threat areas include northern Honduras & Roatan Island, eastern Guatemala and Belize on Friday and Saturday.

Roatan Island, Honduras, Weather Conditions
San Jose, Guatemala, Weather Conditions
Belize City Weather Conditions
Belize Radar

Invest 97L is located in the central Atlantic midway between the Leeward Islands and the Cape Verde Islands and the system is moving westward. A building Atlantic ridge to the north of the Invest area should insure a continued west to west northwest track for many days, so the folks in the Leeward Islands should closely monitor this developing system. Convection is limited at the moment but the overall circulation area is large. With warm SSTs of 29-30C and a somewhat favorable upper air environment, a slow development trend seems appropriate. Invest 97L could become a long-track system.

Given the history of model performance on this system, it might be tempting for some posts to over-hype its expectations, but please don't do that. Keep in mind that the various models are a guidance to developing the future track and intensity forecasts for this system, but they are not the forecast itself. This Invest area is still weak and has many obstacles in its future path. Dry air to its north, an increasing forward speed as the Atlantic ridge strengthens, a zone of southerly windshear east of the Leewards and other potential landmass interactions could all have an impact on what, if anything, the eventual system becomes.

The Forecast Lounge is still the correct place for long range speculation on 97L's future track and intensity.
ED

{{StormLinks|Harvey|08|8|2011|1|Harvey}}

{{StormLinks|97L|97|9|2011|2|97L}}

{{StormLinks|98L|98|10|2011|3|98L}}

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Flhurricane Radar Recording of Martinique Radar (93L Approach)

Long term Central Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Long term West Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Edited by MikeC (Sat Aug 20 2011 05:41 PM)

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