In addition to recon, looks like we have a bouy ( #41101 ) nearly right in the path of 97L. I think if west winds were detected along with falling pressure, than ample data would exist to permit an upgrade to depression ( regardless of recon ). I do not yet believe that the west winds will be found at the surface, perhaps close though.
Looks to me however, that the fast forward motion along with a light southerly component of shear, might still be a temporary hinderance to 97L being upgraded at the ( or prior too ) 3:00pm recon fix. Looks to my eyes, that a LLC might be trying to form under the small CDO at about 14.8 N & 56 W. HOWEVER...., I believe that a reforming LLC will actually emerge farther north between 16 - 17 N under what I believe may be the mid level vortex which appears to be moving on a more WNW direction. Given the excellent mid level structure as exhibited since yesterday, it would appear that the only reason that the system is not already better vertically stacked, is due to the ongoing attempt for a LLC to form, yet getting "stretched" away due to the lower level flow being somewhat more westerly ( and contrary to the mid level wanting to move more WNW at the same time ).
Given improving upper air & and oceanic heat dynamics, the prospects for the system deepening would appear to be getting better as it continues along. My guess is that recon will record some fairly high gusts in squalls ( perhaps 40-50 knots? ) on the northern quadrant of the overall system, but still fall short of being able to close off a surface low. I would expect that convective bursting later this afternoon or evening might just help bring a tilted LLC to the surface and perhaps might occur before nights end.
Tricky situation, given the strength and size of the wave, and its proximity to the islands ( regardless where the ultimate center forms ).
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Re: 97L CDO formation??
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