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MikeCAdministrator
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Posts: 4545
Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands
      Sat Aug 20 2011 11:28 PM

The official forecast is right along the model consensus (Well just slightly west of it), there is enough of a question factor toward the end to keep the entire cone (both west and east) into play, so it could shift into the Gulf.

The tricky thing is that intensity forecast, man, even 50 miles difference between Haiti or not would likely make a huge difference. The Hurricane Center is going conservative on the forecast, which is based on their own track and odds, so it's not too bad, but even they state in the discussion that it is highly uncertain. I'd keep watch of the trends over the week, if it were to affect South Florida it would likely be Friday.

For a graphic of actual probabilities, this is the best one:



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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Irene To Cross Puerto Rico Tonight MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 20 2011 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea CFHCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea mwillis   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:21 AM
. * * observationsin tortola Robert   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 21 2011 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Sun Aug 21 2011 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Joeyfl   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea NewWatcher   Sun Aug 21 2011 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Joeyfl   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MichaelA   Sun Aug 21 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hawkeyewx   Sun Aug 21 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands BayCoGator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands BayCoGator   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands Edski   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands CDMOrlando   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands LoisCane   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands Hugh   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:08 PM

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