The official forecast is right along the model consensus (Well just slightly west of it), there is enough of a question factor toward the end to keep the entire cone (both west and east) into play, so it could shift into the Gulf.
The tricky thing is that intensity forecast, man, even 50 miles difference between Haiti or not would likely make a huge difference. The Hurricane Center is going conservative on the forecast, which is based on their own track and odds, so it's not too bad, but even they state in the discussion that it is highly uncertain. I'd keep watch of the trends over the week, if it were to affect South Florida it would likely be Friday.
For a graphic of actual probabilities, this is the best one:
0 registered and 213 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 34862
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands
Edit
Reply
Quote
