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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
Ptnl One
ADV#3A 8:00 am EDT
21.5N 92.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands
      Sun Aug 21 2011 12:44 AM

At present I would not obsess over the track taking it toward Florida.

First, this is 5 days out. In hurricane time, that is a very long period. Hurricanes are erratic and hard to predict past about two days.

Second, my rule of thumb on tropical cyclones: give 12 to 24 hours after a tropical storm is declared for model runs to do a good job with the tracks; give generally 12 hours after an significant strengthening of a cyclone to get updated model runs with the deeper storm. Based on this, it will be sometime tomorrow (Sunday) before we really get a good handle on the storm's track.

This is heavily due to the fact that model runs take time to run, with the GFS / NOGAPS outputting every 6 hours data ingested 6 hours earlier, and the GFDL / GFNL running every 6 hours base on the output of various global models. This means that the minimum time before the GFDL / GFNL shows a run that ingested the current storm data (specifically the hurricane hunter recon data) is at least 12 hours from now.

Third, if the storm does stick to that track, it will pass over the mountains on Hispanola. It will be substantially weakened by that.

Fourth, if the storm strengthens, and thus deepens, the track will likely shift toward the right, making it more likely to miss Florida (but not guaranteed), though that does open up other east coast targets.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Irene To Cross Puerto Rico Tonight MikeCAdministrator Sun Aug 21 2011 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea CFHCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea mwillis   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:28 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea ftlaudbob   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:21 AM
. * * observationsin tortola Robert   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 11:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea typhoon_tip   Sun Aug 21 2011 11:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Sun Aug 21 2011 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 10:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 09:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Joeyfl   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea WeatherNut   Sun Aug 21 2011 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea NewWatcher   Sun Aug 21 2011 07:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 07:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Joeyfl   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MichaelA   Sun Aug 21 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hawkeyewx   Sun Aug 21 2011 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea Hugh   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea javlin   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands BayCoGator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea MikeCAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands BayCoGator   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands Edski   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands scottsvb   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands CDMOrlando   Sun Aug 21 2011 03:33 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands LoisCane   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands Random Chaos   Sun Aug 21 2011 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms East of the Leeward Islands Hugh   Sat Aug 20 2011 11:08 PM

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