The outflow on the northern side of the system has the look of a western Pacific storm, the south side, not so much, with the pressure drop the center may be on its way to stabilizing. But if it were to recenter again, it may be further northward to match the pattern. Still it is going to be a nasty evening in Puerto Rico.
If the poleward outflow takes over, it would tend to draw it north of Hispaniola, but with the ridge holding above it, it brings more risk toward the Carolinas vs Florida, abut at the same time the chance of a full recurve from the US goes up a bit (still unfortunately an outlier at this time since a trough that would be needed to kick it out just doesn't seem to be coming). There is still quite a bit up in the air with the system, but it appears the storm may trend toward the eastern/right side of the forecast cone. The track at 5PM likely won't change much since you would need a few runs of the models to keep a trend, especially with this system.
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Enters the Northeastern Caribbean Sea
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