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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
Ptnl One
ADV#3A 8:00 am EDT
21.5N 92.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks
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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged:
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico
      Mon Aug 22 2011 04:08 PM

You dont need to look at the NAM model..it's not for Tropical Systems.

Just watch the ECMWF and the GFS and use a blend of the 2.

GFDL has been constantly too far west but is sliding eastward each run..along
with the Ukmet..but both as not as good as the ECMWF or GFS.

It's more NE cause of the ridging I stated is depicted wrong on the models.. but looks
like the GFS has it finally correct (like ECMWF has for the past day or 2)


If you really want to know "Why" the NHC hasn't adjusted their cone more to the right
is cause it's still 3 days out and besides.. they need to keep the people informed. If they
move the cone off of florida.. people would think.. Ok.. nothing to worry about here. But
again..3 days out. They know its a good 90% chance Florida wont be more than bad
seas and surf conditions (beach erosion) but as each 12hrs gets closer.. they will move
that cone more eastward into the bahamas. .... So it's to keep peoples attention really.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 22 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 05:28 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene WeatherNut   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:52 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:38 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:34 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:11 AM
. * * 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene berrywr   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene mwillis   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:27 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene k___g   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Joeyfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Lamar-Plant City   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:40 AM
. * * Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Sheeper   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Yhegler35   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Owlguin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico WeatherNut   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Marknole   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico papaswamp   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico JMII   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:42 PM

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