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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 274 (Idalia) , Major: 274 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 274 (Idalia) Major: 274 (Idalia)
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Posts: 296
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Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico
      Mon Aug 22 2011 08:22 PM

Mike, are we pretty sure that all the latest data will be ingested in time, so to show up in the 0Z runs this evening?

There is no question that the Euro and GFS Global models perhaps provide the most accurate forecasts. I perhaps find that the GFS "sniffs out" potenial development faster than the more conservative Euro does. That said, once latched on I would perhaps test to slightly favor the Euro model. As amazing as the GFS has been in consistantly forecasting development and general motion....it AND every other model that I can think of INCORRECTLY depicted Irene to go south of Puerto Rico and either direclly over Hispanola and Eastern Cuba, or others even farther south. Ultimately, each of the various models out perform the others given certain circumstance and conditions relating to so many factors ( lower latitudes vs. higher latitudes, size & strength of the system, or their ability to better mesh forecasted motion and development verses interaction with TUTT's, Cut-Off Low's, Troughs, Ridges, etc. ). Even the LBAR has a purpose ( though if my life depended on it, I could not tell you what that might be

I think those who might indicate that one or two models clearly present "the solution", and too disregard any other reasoning, would not only imply a degree of ignorance but furthermore understates the very difficult job NHC forecasters really have ( well beyond any political/psychological media releases to keep the masses from panicking ). The key with the many models, are to have the knowledge to know their strengths and weaknesses, and to make the human decision how much weight to apply to them based upon each unique situation.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 22 2011 08:22 PM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 05:28 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene WeatherNut   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:52 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:38 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:34 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:11 AM
. * * 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene berrywr   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene mwillis   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:27 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene k___g   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Joeyfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Lamar-Plant City   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:40 AM
. * * Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Sheeper   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Yhegler35   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Owlguin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico WeatherNut   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Marknole   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico papaswamp   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico JMII   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:42 PM

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