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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
Ptnl One
ADV#3A 8:00 am EDT
21.5N 92.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene
      Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM

Irene is a huge system, and will take time to consolidate, and thus strengthen. The CDO appears to be completely missing Hispanola, which is not good for us in the US since it means the interaction with the mountains will be minimal. It also means it is further north, and thus right of track. Based on IR history, I would say this is more likely a wobble due to the land interaction with Puerto Rico than an actual track shift, but that is not guarenteed.

Using the outermost feederbands, the storm is 700 miles across, though the center is very much toward the southwest of that total cloud mass. As the system deepens and spins up, the storm will shed the outer cloud bands and consolidate toward the core, an area I estimate to be around 100-125 miles in radius (200-250 miles in diameter), which makes it around the size of some of the larger diameter storms that occur in the Atlantic. This will slow it's strengthening (the shear size of it makes it more difficult for it to organize), but the SSTs are hot and very conducive to strengthening, so it might take less time than most storms would.

Keep an eye on the storm if you are anywhere from Florida through New England. Even if the storm misses landfall, we could have a major beach erosion issue for the entire Atlantic seaboard. Right now it looks like the gulf is out of the threat cone, but hurricanes can be erratic, and long range forecasts often change as the storm draws closer.

Edit: Spectacular animation showing Irene developing:
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_irene.html

Edited by Random Chaos (Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 05:28 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene WeatherNut   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:52 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:38 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:34 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:11 AM
. * * 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene berrywr   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene mwillis   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:27 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene k___g   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Joeyfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Lamar-Plant City   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:40 AM
. * * Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Sheeper   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Yhegler35   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Owlguin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico WeatherNut   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Marknole   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico papaswamp   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico JMII   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:42 PM

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