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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
Ptnl One
ADV#3A 8:00 am EDT
21.5N 92.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
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N at 6 mph
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene
      Tue Aug 23 2011 03:41 AM

I've analyzed the 500mb Upper Air Analysis with Plots and as many here have posted concern continues with whether Irene will turn north before becoming a real threat to FL or as some models continue to suggest a more westward track. This evening upper air data from Bermuda indicated a 10 meter increase to 594 decameters which continues to suggest the Bermuda subtropical ridge remains strong. A re-analyzing of the Mid-Continental "Texas" upper ridge continues to be entrenched over drought-stricken Texas. The east coast longwave trough lies between the two and is progressive however based on 20 meter height falls I've re-drawn the bottom of the trough to be across the northern FL where it ends near the upper ridge axis along 29N latitude. There remains a break in the ridge along a north-south axis near 27N 72W. NOAA9 extensively sampled the entire envelope ahead of Irene. The COL is centered once again near 27N 72W. It was noted on the 22/09Z NHC discussion that if Irene reaches major hurricane status and with such a large circulation that outflow entering the westerlies to the north will also aid in keeping the upper ridge to the east strong again suggesting a closer approach to FL. New data this evening suggests this remains plausible. Intensity forecasting is problematic but Irene will be a major hurricane soon.


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Edited by MikeC (Tue Aug 23 2011 03:47 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 23 2011 03:41 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 05:28 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene WeatherNut   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:52 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:38 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:34 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 04:11 AM
. * * 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene berrywr   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:41 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene mwillis   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:37 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene GuppieGrouper   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:27 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 03:01 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene k___g   Tue Aug 23 2011 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:20 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene CaneTrackerInSoFl   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:04 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Joeyfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:57 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:49 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Lamar-Plant City   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:40 AM
. * * Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:31 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:00 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Sheeper   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Yhegler35   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:45 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Owlguin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico WeatherNut   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Marknole   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico papaswamp   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico JMII   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:42 PM

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