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Colin expected to be short-lived riding up the coasts of the Carolinas. Bonnie now in the East Pac.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 292 (Nicholas) , Major: 307 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1361 (Michael) Major: 1361 (Michael)
35.2N 77.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1014mb
Moving:
Ne at 10 mph
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1184
Loc: fl
Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene
      Tue Aug 23 2011 01:28 AM

I really don't see much of a change with the dropsonde package. Never really changes a models output..maybe just slightly in the near term cause its always changing. That's why there is a mission again on Tues,Weds,Thurs..etc etc... with a trough digging in eroding the ridge, it wont matter how much heat gets pulled up into the ridge. Intense hurricanes like 950mb or lower has like 2% worth or less impact on the ridge or trough that approaches.

GFS 00Z run has actually again shifted back east to its 12Z run.

Main near term factor is the Failed pattern of the ridge over the past 3 days. GFS has finally come inline with this ridge as of the 12Z run today and 0Z run by showing a more WNW movement (that it has had since Saturday). Others continued with a more W-WNW motion of 280dg except the HWRF but that model is usually on the right side of most runs.
Medium range will have the Cat3-4 Hurricane actually helping dig the trough on its western side pulling the Hurricane N and NE.. too early to say if there will be a landfall in the Carolinas.. SC-NC will get Tropical Storm conditions at least. Florida has a 5% chance of making a landfall or less even as I stated last Friday night.

Overall this is a typical run the coast between the US-Bermuda storm but is closer than normal due to it developing just east of the islands instead of east of 55W. Remember the GFS didnt have this develop until Sat night in the SE carribean around 14-15N and 62-64W.. but this developed further north around 17N and 58W. Also ridging was more NE causing a WNW movement instead of the movement just north of due west that most models showed for Sunday-Tuesday.

In all....we have a Cat 2 that should be a Cat 3 on Tuesday and Cat 4 possibly over the next day or 2. Pretty much a straight shot into the bahamas and moving just east of Nassau in 3 days or less. Also note after the first short wave passes.. there is no ridging behind this short wave... so the strength of the ridge to the east of Irene will pull whatever is west of it N until the next short wave comes by this weekend into next week. But this isnt a forecast cause that is more than 4 days from now.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Irene Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane MikeCAdministrator Tue Aug 23 2011 01:28 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene scottsvb   Tue Aug 23 2011 01:28 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene WeatherNut   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:52 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene Random Chaos   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:38 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene ralphfl   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:34 AM
. * * Re: 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene LoisCane   Tue Aug 23 2011 12:11 AM
. * * 23/00Z Upper Air Package & Irene berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene mwillis   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:27 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:51 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene k___g   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:35 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:04 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:00 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:49 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Lamar-Plant City   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:42 PM
. * * Re: Category Two Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:40 PM
. * * Category Two Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Sheeper   Mon Aug 22 2011 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Random Chaos   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene vineyardsaker   Mon Aug 22 2011 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings up for the Bahamas from Irene Yhegler35   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:22 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico GuppieGrouper   Mon Aug 22 2011 04:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:45 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico LoisCane   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:54 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico MikeCAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico berrywr   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 01:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:58 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:53 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Owlguin   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Joeyfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Evan Johnson   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Beach   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico weathernet   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico WeatherNut   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:12 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico Marknole   Mon Aug 22 2011 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico scottsvb   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico CaneTrackerInSoFl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico papaswamp   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico ralphfl   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico JMII   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:22 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico danielwAdministrator   Mon Aug 22 2011 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Irene the Year's first Hurricane, Passes Over Puerto Rico javlin   Mon Aug 22 2011 09:42 AM

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