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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

MikeC
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Posts: 4545
Loc: Orlando, FL

Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas
Wed Aug 24 2011 03:24 PM

Quote:

I asked the question yesterday about Irene heading WNW, well it is still heading basically WNW and yet the NHC has said it is moving NW. Is this a way to make themselves not look wrong with the forcast? I am just looking at all of the coodinates and over the last 4 Irene is still moving well more West than North. Am I missing something?

The last 4 coordinate points have been about 305 degrees (IE northwest), and the latest recon fixes have shown generally northwest.

The storm is going to wobble and stair-step, but the overall smooth motion is going to go slowly from northwest to more north over today and tomorrow. If anything the forecast track is not far east enough. Watching the satellite of Irene for movement constantly will test your nerves on a storm like this, right now it stair-stepped westward, a longer jog northward will probably happen. If after 6 hours a "jog" keeps going, you have something.

Odds are dropping for a NC landfall as well, now to about 25%. Still 1 in 4 chance is not something to play games with in a hurricane like this. It is going to be rough in the Carolinas, and it will likely be a good deal closer and stronger than Earl last year (that missed further to the east). If you are on the outer banks, I'd still make plans to leave Thursday or by the latest Friday. If hurricane watches/warnings are issued, take heed.

The reason we say "without the hype" is that we look at why things will not happen over why they will, because hurricane landfalls are a rare event. I honestly do not see anything that would make it go back more west right now and plenty of reasons that would nudge the track more eastward. If that changes I will immediately post that.

Really the official forecast is probably going to be correct (at least to 3 days)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Aug 24 2011 03:24 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Thu Aug 25 2011 03:47 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Random Chaos	Thu Aug 25 2011 03:23 AM
NHC's 11:00pm EDT Update	StrmTrckrMiami	Thu Aug 25 2011 03:04 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	cguhr3	Thu Aug 25 2011 02:27 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Random Chaos	Thu Aug 25 2011 02:26 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Sheeper	Thu Aug 25 2011 02:25 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Thu Aug 25 2011 02:06 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	GuppieGrouper	Thu Aug 25 2011 02:05 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	cguhr3	Thu Aug 25 2011 02:01 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	watchinout	Thu Aug 25 2011 01:57 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	DougBaker	Thu Aug 25 2011 01:26 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Thu Aug 25 2011 01:24 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	cguhr3	Thu Aug 25 2011 01:10 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	StrmTrckrMiami	Thu Aug 25 2011 01:08 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	WesnWylie	Thu Aug 25 2011 12:03 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Aug 24 2011 11:00 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 24 2011 10:17 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	cieldumort	Wed Aug 24 2011 09:53 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	vineyardsaker	Wed Aug 24 2011 09:47 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	StrmTrckrMiami	Wed Aug 24 2011 09:34 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 24 2011 09:28 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	ralphfl	Wed Aug 24 2011 09:23 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	StrmTrckrMiami	Wed Aug 24 2011 09:20 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 24 2011 09:07 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	JMII	Wed Aug 24 2011 08:58 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Aug 24 2011 07:47 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Aug 24 2011 07:34 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 24 2011 07:23 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Aug 24 2011 07:15 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	okihabu	Wed Aug 24 2011 06:53 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	JMII	Wed Aug 24 2011 05:30 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	WeatherNut	Wed Aug 24 2011 04:58 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Aug 24 2011 03:39 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	tpratch	Wed Aug 24 2011 03:27 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Aug 24 2011 03:24 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Tazmanian93	Wed Aug 24 2011 03:20 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	adam s	Wed Aug 24 2011 03:15 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Firebug814	Wed Aug 24 2011 03:14 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	scottsvb	Wed Aug 24 2011 02:43 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	JMII	Wed Aug 24 2011 02:29 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	danielw	Wed Aug 24 2011 12:19 PM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 24 2011 11:24 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	MikeC	Wed Aug 24 2011 11:17 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 24 2011 10:55 AM
Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas	Tazmanian93	Wed Aug 24 2011 10:29 AM

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