F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 276 (Idalia) , Major: 276 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 276 (Idalia) Major: 276 (Idalia)
None
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks
Previous thread Previous   View all threads Index   Next thread Next   Flat Mode Flat  

Dougyd
Verified CFHC User


Reged:
Posts: 17
Loc: Sanibel
Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
      Fri Aug 26 2011 02:23 PM

Storm surge predictions are the most inaccurately predicted aspects of storms.
Some of my observations:
1. Irene is a fast-moving storm moving (initially) parallel to the coast.
2. These types of storms don't have enough time for a large storm surge as there is not a lot of time for the surge to build up.
3. Once the center is past the water is pulled out.
4. The above does not mean there will not be large wave action, though.
5. Storm surges are larger when a storm is slow-moving.

Storms moving directly into land act differently.
1. Surges are larger on the windy side of the eye - pushing water continuously in the same areas.
2. Obviously, slow moving storms allow the surge more time to build up.
3. Bays, inlets and rivers on the windy side can have much higher surges because the water is forced into a narrowing area.
4. Surges on the non-windy side of the storm do not exist.
5. Water is actually sucked out of bays, inlets and rivers.

I think for the above reasons, storm surge was dropped for the hurricane categories. It is also why SOES never worked. It is also why "little" storms frequently have much greater surges the the "big" ones.
Doug
None of this address tides as these are well understood but hard to predict until the storm's arrival is certain.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Warnings into Massachusetts as Irene Closes in on North Carolina's Outer Banks MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 26 2011 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Edski   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings into Massachusetts as Irene Closes in on North Carolina's Outer Banks cieldumort   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps JMII   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Joeyfl   Sat Aug 27 2011 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Random Chaos   Fri Aug 26 2011 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps ralphfl   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps JMII   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps cjzydeco   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene Slightly Weaker but Larger and Heading to North Carolina cieldumort   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps BTfromAZ   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps JMII   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Genesis   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Slightly Weaker but Larger and Heading to North Carolina Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:00 PM
. * * Irene Storm Preps danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts adam s   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 26 2011 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts Dougyd   Fri Aug 26 2011 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts Tazmanian93   Fri Aug 26 2011 12:39 PM
. * * Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 12:28 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 19 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 20596

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center