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danielwAdministrator
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Posts: 3525
Loc: Hattiesburg,MS (31.3N 89.3W)
Re: Irene Surge Forecasts
      Fri Aug 26 2011 04:19 PM

StrmTrckrMiami... The Surge analysis for your area has not been run as of Advisory number 25.

The Surge/ Slosh/ MEOW... whatever you wish to call it is run ahead of the Storm about 36 to 48 hours. Right now it only extends to the Lower Bay,NY on the SW end of Long Island,NY.

This will progress over the day to a point where your area is in the data run and plotted.

Dougyd. You are correct with your observations and analysis. This storm is a bit different than what we are accustomed to in the SE US. The path is parallel to the Coast and Irene has a huge wind field.
Long hours, possibly 24 hours of high winds blowing water into bay, sounds and estuaries will pile up the water. In addition Astronomical High Tides will add to the water pile up.
The water/ surge should slowly recede after Irene's Center passes by.

I have not seen mention of the Jet Streak that is forecast to develop on the NW Quad of Irene in the next few days. This is forecast to aid Irene in maintaining a lower barometric pressure. Which will keep the storm at a steady state longer.
This Jet Streak was analyzed by a NWS office in Pennsylvania yesterday according to the Weather Channel.

Here's a continuously updating Hurricane Local Statement link to your Local NWS Office. Just click on the Office nearest your location.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls4.shtml

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Warnings into Massachusetts as Irene Closes in on North Carolina's Outer Banks MikeCAdministrator Fri Aug 26 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Edski   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Warnings into Massachusetts as Irene Closes in on North Carolina's Outer Banks cieldumort   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:43 AM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps JMII   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Joeyfl   Sat Aug 27 2011 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Random Chaos   Fri Aug 26 2011 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps ralphfl   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:30 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps JMII   Fri Aug 26 2011 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps cjzydeco   Fri Aug 26 2011 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene Slightly Weaker but Larger and Heading to North Carolina cieldumort   Fri Aug 26 2011 08:24 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps BTfromAZ   Fri Aug 26 2011 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps JMII   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Genesis   Fri Aug 26 2011 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Slightly Weaker but Larger and Heading to North Carolina Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:14 PM
. * * Re: Irene Storm Preps Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 05:00 PM
. * * Irene Storm Preps danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:29 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts adam s   Fri Aug 26 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 03:59 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts StrmTrckrMiami   Fri Aug 26 2011 03:37 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts Dougyd   Fri Aug 26 2011 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Irene Surge Forecasts Tazmanian93   Fri Aug 26 2011 12:39 PM
. * * Irene Surge Forecasts danielwAdministrator   Fri Aug 26 2011 12:28 PM

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