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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC
      Sat Aug 27 2011 05:53 PM

Bad Information Warning:

I have seen local news websites linking to a SLOSH simulation of worst case scenario storm surges on the Chesapeake Bay based on a hurricane coming strait up the Bay. This study was done after Isabel and is not anything like what you will see with Irene on the Chesapeake Bay. Repeat, this is not what will happen with Irene.

The track of Irene is too far east and the track of Irene has already taken it over land, reducing the surge "drag" that accumulates over time. Irene will have major storm surges along the Atlantic coast including Norfolk, very southern Chesapeake Bay, much of the Delaware Bay, northern New Jersey, New York City, and Long Island. It will not have a major storm surge on the majority of the Chesapeake bay, and in fact the latest models I am watching show a negative surge in the northern bay due to winds pushing water south.

Please refer to the surge probability diagrams produced by the NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at4.shtml?gm

You can also use the NWS coastal Operational Forecast System models that include tide simulations:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html

Edited by Random Chaos (Sat Aug 27 2011 06:49 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC MikeCAdministrator Sat Aug 27 2011 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC cieldumort   Sun Aug 28 2011 12:22 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC danielwAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2011 12:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC WeatherNut   Sun Aug 28 2011 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC cieldumort   Sat Aug 27 2011 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 27 2011 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 27 2011 10:25 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 10:23 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC danielwAdministrator   Sat Aug 27 2011 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 27 2011 09:53 PM
. * * Duck Pier, NC DaViking   Sat Aug 27 2011 09:45 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC cieldumort   Sat Aug 27 2011 09:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC cieldumort   Sat Aug 27 2011 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 27 2011 07:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC OuraganTornade   Sat Aug 27 2011 06:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 05:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 05:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 27 2011 04:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 03:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC StrmTrckrMiami   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC ralphfl   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC Random Chaos   Sat Aug 27 2011 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Irene Landfalls at Cape Lookout, NC MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 27 2011 12:39 PM

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