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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean
      Wed Aug 31 2011 11:28 AM

For Katia track:

There is a ridge north of Katia. There is a weakness forecast in that ridge to move east, allowing Katia through the ridge in around a week, somewhere south to southeast of Bermuda.

As people who watch eastern Atlantic hurricanes know, forecasting of these weaknesses in ridges is often fraught with error: they often develop at different speeds and strengths when forecast this far out. While generally the weaknesses in the ridge do manifest, the exact location is not guaranteed, and whether the tropical cyclone will find the weakness strong enough to allow it to move through is also not guaranteed.

We therefore are in a waiting game for the next several days as models get closer and closer to the event. Once we are 1-2 days away from the weaknesses being near Katia, we should have a much better understanding of how strong the weaknesses will be and whether Katia will likely take it. The question is also as to the exact position of that weaknesses, and thus how close to Bermuda or the Atlantic coast Katia will come when it passes through that break.

A lot of unknowns, and very few knowns, at this early point in watching Katia.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 31 2011 11:28 AM
. * * Re: 93L is now 13L Random Chaos   Fri Sep 02 2011 01:38 AM
. * * Re: 93L is now 13L MichaelA   Fri Sep 02 2011 01:36 AM
. * * Re: 93L is now 13L LoisCane   Fri Sep 02 2011 12:58 AM
. * * Re: 93L is now 13L danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 11:43 PM
. * * Re: 93L is now 13L danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 11:37 PM
. * * 93L is now 13L danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic Joeyfl   Thu Sep 01 2011 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic mikethewreck   Thu Sep 01 2011 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic Joeyfl   Thu Sep 01 2011 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Katia Update weathernet   Thu Sep 01 2011 07:32 PM
. * * Re: 93L in the Gulf weathernet   Thu Sep 01 2011 07:13 PM
. * * Katia Update danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 07:03 PM
. * * Re: 93L in the Gulf danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 06:36 PM
. * * Re: 93L in the Gulf GuppieGrouper   Thu Sep 01 2011 05:57 PM
. * * Re: 93L in the Gulf mikethewreck   Thu Sep 01 2011 05:42 PM
. * * Re: 93L in the Gulf Joeyfl   Thu Sep 01 2011 05:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L in the Gulf weathernet   Thu Sep 01 2011 05:16 PM
. * * Re: 93L in the Gulf danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 02:29 PM
. * * 93L in the Gulf danielwAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 02:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf Joeyfl   Thu Sep 01 2011 03:08 AM
. * * Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf Random Chaos   Thu Sep 01 2011 02:59 AM
. * * Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf TXEB   Thu Sep 01 2011 01:22 AM
. * * Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf Random Chaos   Thu Sep 01 2011 01:02 AM
. * * Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf berrywr   Wed Aug 31 2011 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2011 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2011 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2011 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2011 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean papaswamp   Wed Aug 31 2011 06:18 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean delia6667   Wed Aug 31 2011 06:08 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean papaswamp   Wed Aug 31 2011 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean delia6667   Wed Aug 31 2011 04:59 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean doug   Wed Aug 31 2011 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Random Chaos   Wed Aug 31 2011 11:28 AM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Random Chaos   Wed Aug 31 2011 04:13 AM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2011 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Joeyfl   Wed Aug 31 2011 12:40 AM

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