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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)

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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst

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Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland

Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean
Wed Aug 31 2011 07:28 AM

For Katia track:

There is a ridge north of Katia. There is a weakness forecast in that ridge to move east, allowing Katia through the ridge in around a week, somewhere south to southeast of Bermuda.

As people who watch eastern Atlantic hurricanes know, forecasting of these weaknesses in ridges is often fraught with error: they often develop at different speeds and strengths when forecast this far out. While generally the weaknesses in the ridge do manifest, the exact location is not guaranteed, and whether the tropical cyclone will find the weakness strong enough to allow it to move through is also not guaranteed.

We therefore are in a waiting game for the next several days as models get closer and closer to the event. Once we are 1-2 days away from the weaknesses being near Katia, we should have a much better understanding of how strong the weaknesses will be and whether Katia will likely take it. The question is also as to the exact position of that weaknesses, and thus how close to Bermuda or the Atlantic coast Katia will come when it passes through that break.

A lot of unknowns, and very few knowns, at this early point in watching Katia.

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Aug 31 2011 07:28 AM
Re: 93L is now 13L	Random Chaos	Thu Sep 01 2011 09:38 PM
Re: 93L is now 13L	MichaelA	Thu Sep 01 2011 09:36 PM
Re: 93L is now 13L	LoisCane	Thu Sep 01 2011 08:58 PM
Re: 93L is now 13L	danielw	Thu Sep 01 2011 07:43 PM
Re: 93L is now 13L	danielw	Thu Sep 01 2011 07:37 PM
93L is now 13L	danielw	Thu Sep 01 2011 07:25 PM
Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic	Joeyfl	Thu Sep 01 2011 06:54 PM
Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic	MikeC	Thu Sep 01 2011 06:46 PM
Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic	mikethewreck	Thu Sep 01 2011 06:14 PM
Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic	MikeC	Thu Sep 01 2011 06:14 PM
Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic	Joeyfl	Thu Sep 01 2011 05:40 PM
Re: Katia Now A Hurricane Moving WNW in the Central Atlantic	Ed Dunham	Thu Sep 01 2011 04:39 PM
Re: Katia Update	weathernet	Thu Sep 01 2011 03:32 PM
Re: 93L in the Gulf	weathernet	Thu Sep 01 2011 03:13 PM
Katia Update	danielw	Thu Sep 01 2011 03:03 PM
Re: 93L in the Gulf	danielw	Thu Sep 01 2011 02:36 PM
Re: 93L in the Gulf	GuppieGrouper	Thu Sep 01 2011 01:57 PM
Re: 93L in the Gulf	mikethewreck	Thu Sep 01 2011 01:42 PM
Re: 93L in the Gulf	Joeyfl	Thu Sep 01 2011 01:18 PM
Re: 93L in the Gulf	weathernet	Thu Sep 01 2011 01:16 PM
Re: 93L in the Gulf	danielw	Thu Sep 01 2011 10:29 AM
93L in the Gulf	danielw	Thu Sep 01 2011 10:18 AM
Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf	Joeyfl	Wed Aug 31 2011 11:08 PM
Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 31 2011 10:59 PM
Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf	TXEB	Wed Aug 31 2011 09:22 PM
Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 31 2011 09:02 PM
Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf	MikeC	Wed Aug 31 2011 08:37 PM
Re: Watching Katia in the Central Atlantic and Invest 93L in the Gulf	berrywr	Wed Aug 31 2011 07:23 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	MikeC	Wed Aug 31 2011 07:04 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 31 2011 04:39 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	Ed Dunham	Wed Aug 31 2011 02:47 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	danielw	Wed Aug 31 2011 02:40 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	papaswamp	Wed Aug 31 2011 02:18 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	delia6667	Wed Aug 31 2011 02:08 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	papaswamp	Wed Aug 31 2011 01:46 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	delia6667	Wed Aug 31 2011 12:59 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	doug	Wed Aug 31 2011 10:40 AM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 31 2011 07:28 AM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	Random Chaos	Wed Aug 31 2011 12:13 AM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	danielw	Tue Aug 30 2011 09:21 PM
Re: Watching Katia and an Area in the Northwestern Caribbean	Joeyfl	Tue Aug 30 2011 08:40 PM

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