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#90L pushing further inland. Rain, t-storms, gusty winds and isolated tornadoes possible in the southeast.
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Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Katia Forecast Lounge
      Thu Sep 01 2011 12:12 PM

I'm not quite sure that I understand the concern, i.e., is it with Katia, the models, or NHC? Regarding Katia, because of southwesterly wind shear and maybe some dry air entrainment (the western portion of the system is weak), I'm not quite sure that the storm ever reached hurricane intensity - but that is what she is listed as and its close enough. The NHC states that they still expect Katia to resume a WNW track and I cannot presume to know what the confidence level is at NHC, however, misjudging a portion of a forecast has little to do with confidence and a lot to do with mis-interpretation. The inconsistency in the models is something that happens - often - which is why they are simply a guide and not a forecast. Speaking of forecasts, the description of this Forum states: " Have a forecast for a storm, Invest or disturbance, but not too much beyond a "gut feeling". " , i.e., its a place to tell others what you think is going to happen.

I've given some thought to an earlier post regarding potential impacts from 93L on the track of Katia. Right now 93L is too weak and the storms are too far apart, however if 93L should intensify, the circulation around the new system could put the brakes on the southern limit of the extent of the east coast trough. This might then alter the magnitude of the weakness that Katia would encounter. Its a bit of a stretch and its certainly not a given - its just a thought.
ED

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Katia Forecast Lounge doug Thu Sep 01 2011 12:12 PM
. * * Re: TD12 Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Aug 29 2011 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge M.A.   Tue Aug 30 2011 07:31 AM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Tue Aug 30 2011 04:34 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge Joeyfl   Tue Aug 30 2011 06:03 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 30 2011 06:05 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge saltysenior   Tue Aug 30 2011 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge Juanjo   Wed Aug 31 2011 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2011 06:15 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge Evan Johnson   Thu Sep 01 2011 09:48 AM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2011 12:12 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge Primo   Fri Sep 02 2011 01:34 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 02 2011 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge cjzydeco   Sat Sep 03 2011 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Sat Sep 03 2011 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge WeatherNut   Sun Sep 04 2011 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Sun Sep 04 2011 01:14 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge doug   Fri Sep 02 2011 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Sep 02 2011 10:01 AM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge Juanjo   Wed Aug 31 2011 06:47 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge TXEB   Tue Aug 30 2011 08:11 PM
. * * Re: Katia Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Aug 30 2011 09:34 AM
. * * Re: 92L forecast lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2011 01:23 PM
. * * Re: 92L forecast lounge weathernet   Sun Aug 28 2011 01:44 PM
. * * Re: 92L forecast lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Aug 28 2011 02:22 PM
. * * Re: 92L forecast lounge weathernet   Sun Aug 28 2011 08:26 PM

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