F
Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 277 (Idalia) , Major: 277 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 277 (Idalia) Major: 277 (Idalia)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2306
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico
      Fri Sep 02 2011 05:47 AM

Quote:

The thing I am wondering does the storm relocate further to the SE? The area which appears may have the lower pressures just from thunder storm activity.I never really could locate a spin of any type at the NHC spot earlier really.Have to see in the morning if NOAA plane finds anything tonight but have to agree it's a mess ATTM




This is a really good question, and one which I have been considering throughout the day, as well. The initial center location as determined by NHC after Recon made a number of passes was not that impressive, and remains under moderate shear. Meanwhile, where the convection is strongest - a good distance to its southeast - is also just about ideally situated under favorable winds aloft.

Weak tropical cyclones (and one could arguably have seen TD13 going at least another few hours without NHC having officiated it, as it is just that weak) are much more likely to have center reformations. While the location identified by NHC has appeared to be the most prominent, at the time that NHC made the upgrade I could count no less than four surface swirls in the GOM, plus also one just inland over eastern Mexico.

If the location of TD13 does jump, this will call in to question the viability of all of the initial model runs. Models are only going to be as good as the data which goes in to them, and in the case of THIRTEEN, much greater discernment may need to be used.

As can be seen in the image below, both convection and wind barbs support the notion that THIRTEEN may already be in the process of consolidating well to the southeast. The red "L" is roughly the initial location of THIRTEEN as identified by NHC during the first Advisory. The red "NC?" stands for New Center?


On the other hand, this recent ASCAT pass from 0248Z suggests that the original, NHC-declared center, remains largely intact, but has drifted (or reformed) to the south-southwest:
.

With Recon scheduled to make another fly into THIRTEEN later tonight, we will hopefully have a better clue as to what the system is doing come daybreak.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Cat II Katia Continues Northwest - Lee's Remnants Move Into Mississippi MikeCAdministrator Fri Sep 02 2011 05:47 AM
. * * Re: Annular Katia? Ed in Va   Tue Sep 06 2011 12:53 AM
. * * Annular Katia? Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Sep 05 2011 05:27 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop Random Chaos   Mon Sep 05 2011 03:02 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 05 2011 02:52 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop Random Chaos   Mon Sep 05 2011 02:32 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 05 2011 02:27 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop MichaelA   Mon Sep 05 2011 02:18 PM
. * * Katia Eye danielwAdministrator   Mon Sep 05 2011 02:15 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop Random Chaos   Mon Sep 05 2011 01:50 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop typhoon_tip   Sun Sep 04 2011 07:08 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop Random Chaos   Sun Sep 04 2011 05:32 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 03 2011 09:10 PM
. * * Re: TS Lee Pressure drop berrywr   Sat Sep 03 2011 07:00 PM
. * * TS Lee Pressure drop danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 03 2011 05:25 PM
. * * Re: Lee Rain Continues as it nears the Central Louisiana Coastline cieldumort   Sat Sep 03 2011 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Lee Joeyfl   Sat Sep 03 2011 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Lee MichaelA   Sat Sep 03 2011 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Lee danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 03 2011 12:06 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Lee danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 03 2011 11:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico papaswamp   Sat Sep 03 2011 10:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico Random Chaos   Sat Sep 03 2011 12:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico Random Chaos   Fri Sep 02 2011 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico MichaelA   Fri Sep 02 2011 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico MichaelA   Fri Sep 02 2011 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 02 2011 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico MichaelA   Fri Sep 02 2011 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico TXEB   Fri Sep 02 2011 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico JMII   Fri Sep 02 2011 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico doug   Fri Sep 02 2011 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico javlin   Fri Sep 02 2011 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico MichaelA   Fri Sep 02 2011 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico Joeyfl   Fri Sep 02 2011 01:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico mikethewreck   Fri Sep 02 2011 09:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Fri Sep 02 2011 05:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico Random Chaos   Fri Sep 02 2011 03:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico javlin   Fri Sep 02 2011 03:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 02 2011 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico watchinout   Fri Sep 02 2011 01:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in the Gulf of Mexico MichaelA   Thu Sep 01 2011 11:58 PM

Extra information
0 registered and 1 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 32947

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center