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Sara's remnants are now in the Gulf, but are not expected to reorganize much. Elsewhere, no tropical development is anticipated.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 42 (Milton) , Major: 42 (Milton) Florida - Any: 42 (Milton) Major: 42 (Milton)
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typhoon_tip
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Re: The Active Season Continues
      Sat Sep 24 2011 03:27 PM

Bulletin:
Situation not urgent however indications are clear that a TC is attempting to form amid an area of elongated low pressure extending N-S through the Bahamas. There is an axis of rotation evident near 28.5N/78W. The region is situated over ample oceanic heat content, has little or no dry air to contend with, and has reasonable upper level divergent winds. It is currently moving N at ~ 12kts.

This is a rather abrupt introduction, but is real nonetheless. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (orange colored region).

This area was/is actually track-able going back some 48 hours as a disturbance/TW producing significant bursts of convection as it neared the SE Bahamas over that time. I was curious what this might do when it arrived in the current location; TC can sometimes generate in this region when disturbances encounter improving mass-sink diflluent flow aloft (a condition consistent with having a closed low aloft over the N Tenn Valley, while subtropical ridging persists in the western Atlantic.

It is unknown to what extent this will take off, if does at all ... but it is worthy of note considering the current deep layer steering would warrant caution.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Sat Sep 24 2011 03:28 PM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* The Active Season Continues Ed DunhamAdministrator Sat Sep 24 2011 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Pending 16?? WeatherNut   Tue Sep 27 2011 04:36 PM
. * * Pending 16?? Wingman51   Tue Sep 27 2011 09:52 AM
. * * Re: The Active Season Continues Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 24 2011 07:54 PM
. * * Re: The Active Season Continues Chris Bryant   Sat Sep 24 2011 06:13 PM
. * * Re: The Active Season Continues typhoon_tip   Sat Sep 24 2011 03:27 PM

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