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Kirk becomes farthest east Major for time of year on record. Leslie becomes record 5th name for any 24 Sep - 2 Oct on record in Atlantic basin. Very active period continues.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 6 (Helene) , Major: 6 (Helene) Florida - Any: 6 (Helene) Major: 6 (Helene)
Hur Kirk
ADV#18 5:00 pm EDT
21.1N 46.7W
Wind: 130MPH
Pres: 945mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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TS Leslie
ADV#6 5:00 pm EDT
10.1N 31.5W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1001mb
Moving:
W at 6 mph
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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week.
      Mon Oct 17 2011 11:27 AM

The visible of 95L shows what is clearly a low level circulation to the west of the convection, located just north of the Yucatan coast and moving westward parallel to the coast. There is no sign of a circulation in the storm cluster to the NE of this vortex. The picture shows shear over the system from the SW. It is my opinion that development/classification is not going to happen. That will not prevent the heavier weather in the SE GOM from moving across Florida as predicted.

--------------------
doug

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* 95L in Gulf of Mexico, LLC & Convection Separated Monday AM cieldumort Mon Oct 17 2011 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2011 11:50 AM
. * * Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. doug   Mon Oct 17 2011 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. adam s   Mon Oct 17 2011 10:10 AM
. * * Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. MikeCAdministrator   Sun Oct 16 2011 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Northwest Caribbean Likely to Develop This Week. CDMOrlando   Sun Oct 16 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Watching the NW Caribbean Invest 95L & Central Atlantic Disturbance MichaelA   Sat Oct 15 2011 09:25 PM

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