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Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Re: Caribbean Still Active
      Sat Oct 22 2011 01:37 PM

This morning, 96L appears to be centered close to 13N & 82W, but appears to be experiencing upper level shear and suddenly most models also seem much less "bullish" on development than were shown in yesterday's runs. In addition, today's recon has been cancelled as well. It would appear that if the circulation center were perhaps just north of Honduras rather than its appearant location, than upper level conditions would seem more conducive for development. Though pressures are low throughout that entire area, there may be just enough of a developed center of circulation, that a second center forming farther towards the northwest would appear unlikely. If the current appearant center of 96L were to move westward and disipate over land, than perhaps such a reformation of center and lower pressure could establish itself just north of Honduras.

Other thought on possible reason for 96L having difficulty developing ( and is just speculation ) is perhaps surface inflow issues also exist on the west side of circulation partially due to being a fairly small and tight area of low pressure, and in conjunction with its proximity to the Nicaragua coastline. No doubt there have been many past W. Caribbean storms that have developed in this same general vicinity with little difficulty.

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Rina Develops in the Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Sat Oct 22 2011 01:37 PM
. * * Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 23 2011 10:44 PM
. * * TD 18 Discussion danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 23 2011 06:44 PM
. * * TD 18 Vortex danielwAdministrator   Sun Oct 23 2011 06:40 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Invest 96L on the Cusp, Recon Investigating Carfax16   Sun Oct 23 2011 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Invest 96L on the Cusp, Recon Investigating cieldumort   Sun Oct 23 2011 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Still Active WeatherNut   Sun Oct 23 2011 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Caribbean Still Active weathernet   Sat Oct 22 2011 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Still Active weathernet   Fri Oct 21 2011 10:59 AM

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