Tropical Storm Rina Develops in the Western Caribbean

Interest in Southern Florida will need to pay close attention to TD 18 over the next few days as models diverge/ split on the forecast track. See second paragraph below.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS ACQUIRED JUST
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...
BASED ON A FEW BELIEVABLE 27 TO 28 KT SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS. THE
DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER BUT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
THE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT FORECAST TO
BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE
HOSTILE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 335/5. THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST INCREASES GREATLY IN THE 3
TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE
HWRF...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...
AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK.

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