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Invest 94L just northeast of the ABC islands in the Caribbean moving west, 20% development chance. Another area near the Cabo Verde islands has a 20% chance to develop over the next 7 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 300 (Idalia) , Major: 300 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 300 (Idalia) Major: 300 (Idalia)
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berrywr
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean
      Mon Oct 24 2011 12:49 PM

As of 23/1645Z - Rina is in a "sweet" spot. In the here and now Rina cannot advance north or she'll be sheared apart in quick fashion. Winds aloft to her north are from the WSW at 60 knots, near 70 closer to FL. Water vapor imagery has very, very dry air to her NW off the GOM coasts of TX, LA and in the short term steering currents are next to nil. Rina does look good on satellite but slow moving systems will generate upwelling...cooler water and thus rapid intensification is highly unlikely; there too is interaction with land...the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Upcoming upper air pattern for later in the week is not as amplified as the onset of the most recent cool snap over the eastern USA; however the cooler temperatures will be on par. SSTs over FL are much cooler than the 30C/86F Rina is over. Given that Rina will be down there for most of this week; there's no reliable model data that can tell us where Rina is going and in this particular lounge it would be unwise to suggest these possibilities until later in the week.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Rina Sheared Apart MikeCAdministrator Mon Oct 24 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Encountering Shear & Dry Air As It Turns Northwest MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2011 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Encountering Shear & Dry Air As It Turns Northwest Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Oct 26 2011 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Strengthening and Moving Slowly LoisCane   Wed Oct 26 2011 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Strengthening and Moving Slowly danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 25 2011 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Strengthening and Moving Slowly danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 25 2011 08:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Strengthening and Moving Slowly cieldumort   Tue Oct 25 2011 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Currently Stationary in NW Caribbean Sea cieldumort   Tue Oct 25 2011 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 24 2011 04:01 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 24 2011 03:55 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 24 2011 03:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 24 2011 03:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Currently Stationary in NW Caribbean Sea Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 24 2011 03:02 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean adam s   Mon Oct 24 2011 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina Currently Stationary in NW Caribbean Sea Owlguin   Mon Oct 24 2011 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 24 2011 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 24 2011 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean Ed in Va   Mon Oct 24 2011 02:28 PM
. * * Hurricane Rina in Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 24 2011 02:12 PM
. * * Re: Slow Moving Tropical Storm Rina CDMOrlando   Mon Oct 24 2011 02:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 24 2011 02:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean berrywr   Mon Oct 24 2011 12:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Rina in Western Caribbean WeatherNut   Mon Oct 24 2011 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Slow Moving Tropical Storm Rina adam s   Mon Oct 24 2011 12:02 PM

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