Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Hurricane Rina Currently Stationary in NW Caribbean Sea
Mon Oct 24 2011 03:02 PM
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Keep in mind that the NHC forecast did have Rina reaching hurricane status in a few days. Now it seems that Rina will be a stronger hurricane, but I wouldn't expect much change, if any, in the forecast track. Normally a stronger cyclone will develop more of a northward component in its movement - but not always. Other factors such as the strength of the ridge to the north will also determine when and if Rina takes on a more northward track. A cold front will approach the northern Gulf, weaken the ridge and if it can weaken it enough, Rina could respond with a more northward track. However, that is still a few days away and the models still have mixed solutions.
With regard to the model outputs and intensity, a couple of days ago when Rina was still an Invest, the GFS model did develop the storm into a strong hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico - and then it backed off from that solution. Remember, the model is not the forecast for the storm, it is a guide that aids the meteorologist in developing the forecast. Although the models have improved considerably in the past decade, they are still far from perfect, i.e., the human input is still required.
Another factor could be the storms current slow speed. If Rina slows to a crawl (and it may already be there), upwelling will cool down the SST and the storm could weaken - but that usually takes a couple of days and Rina should drift slowly to the northwest later tonight.
ED
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