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Models are starting to notice trof in the Gulf. Could become yet another TD-like system this weekend, even if not named. #txwx
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 333 (Nicholas) , Major: 349 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1403 (Michael) Major: 1403 (Michael)
 


Archives 2010s >> 2011 Forecast Lounge

doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Rina Forecast Lounge
      Wed Oct 26 2011 01:24 PM

The scenario Weathernet posted above explains why Rina will not 'bottom out" (deepen) in the Florida straits.
Looking at the fixes in the last three previous advisories gives me the impression that a NW to NNW motion (more to the right) is setting in today. NNW would keep Rina off shore. Based on current forward speed projections it is not expected to interact with land until potentially Saturday after the turn occurs which puts Cuba into play.
However, I am beginning to think this whole thing may speed up a bit. I think this is the only way Florida gets into any serious danger; as, if Rina increases speed to 8-10 and pops out into the southern GOM as a cat 1 and then turns ene to e, the probability of Florida being seriously threatened increases.
There is too much uncertainty about the strength of the High pressure ridge now influencing Rina's path to make e totally discount Florida as a potential land fall threat.

--------------------
doug

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Rina Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator Wed Oct 26 2011 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge CDMOrlando   Tue Oct 25 2011 05:30 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge adam s   Mon Oct 24 2011 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge doug   Mon Oct 24 2011 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Mon Oct 24 2011 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Mon Oct 24 2011 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 25 2011 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 25 2011 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge Owlguin   Tue Oct 25 2011 08:14 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge Keith B   Tue Oct 25 2011 10:06 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 25 2011 11:42 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Wed Oct 26 2011 12:08 AM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Oct 26 2011 09:01 AM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge weathernet   Wed Oct 26 2011 11:08 AM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Wed Oct 26 2011 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Oct 26 2011 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge k___g   Wed Oct 26 2011 12:19 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 26 2011 03:50 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge doug   Wed Oct 26 2011 05:00 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Thu Oct 27 2011 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 25 2011 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 25 2011 08:55 AM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge LoisCane   Tue Oct 25 2011 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Rina Forecast Lounge berrywr   Mon Oct 24 2011 12:37 PM

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