Yucatan Channel feature - FLHurricane.com

Shame on Me. I had seen the 'visual cues' that you mentioned and totally discounted them due to the Calendar being Feb 4th.
Not to mention the transition back to night shift after 5 years of day shift.

Latest, 7 minutes old, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120206 0000 UTC

The SHIP model has it's maximum wind speed at 31 kts at the 24 hour mark. This time tomorrow night.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
LOW IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND A
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING AND HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TURNING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND WMO HEADER FZNT24
KNHC...AND ALSO IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

***********************************************
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N87W 22N86W 20N85W
WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 22N87W...AS OF 2100 UTC.
THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 24N89W
TO 18N83W WHICH IS PROVIDING AN AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS
WRN CUBA AND THE SE GULF WHERE THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED. CURRENTLY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 19N-25N
BETWEEN 77W-88W. AREAS IN WRN CUBA HAVE ALREADY REPORTED UP TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO WRN CUBA AND
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THE MOISTURE TOWARDS S FLORIDA. LOCAL
FORECASTS INDICATE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND S FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
SYSTEM.

Edited by danielw (Sun Feb 05 2012 07:44 PM)

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