Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Re: Outlook for 2012
Sun Apr 01 2012 09:51 AM
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Latest expectation still suggest ENSO neutral conditions this Spring will warm to a modest El Nino event by late Summer and Fall in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. The tropical Atlantic SSTs are now expected to remain neutral throughout the hurricane season - and slightly cooler than previously forecast.
On April 4th, CSU will issue its tropical cyclone forecast for the 2012 season, and an earlier discussion issued by CSU on March 21st suggested that the upcoming season is expected to be less active than normal.
With the likelihood that the tropical Atlantic will be a little cooler than previously expected and considerably cooler than last season, a downward adjustment in the 2012 Outlook seems realistic. I've lowered by expectations to a more normal to slightly less than normal level of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. The new best-fit analog years are 2009, 2006 and 1968.
ADDED: 1951 is also a reasonably good analog year.
There is a good chance for an early season storm (June or earlier) this year.
Now its your turn to post your own forecast for the season - rationale is welcomed, but not required. Please post specific numbers for number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes rather than a range of numbers, i.e., 10/5/2 rather than 9-11, 4-6, and 1-3. At the end of the season we'll take a look back and see how well we did. This thread will remain open until the start of the hurricane season on June 1st - up until then you can adjust your forecast as many times as you wish.
Cheers,
ED
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Apr 04 2012 09:25 AM)
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