ALETTA's Unexpected Intensification / Intensity Forecasting Remains Problematic

Tropical Depression ALETTA remains fairly well coupled in the vertical this morning, and seems to be bucking the SW-erly wind shear for just a while longer than initially expected. Additionally, very deep and vigorous convection continues to flare and pulse near the still very-well defined low level center of circulation.

(Image Courtesy of University of Hawaii Weather Server)

Awaiting further Passive Microwave Satellite Imagery, but a 6:15 am overpass, around the break of day, local basin time, portrayed a fairly well aligned cyclone still, with tight convective signatures wrapping around an apparently small 'calm spot', in a psudo-eyewall feature open to the east. As least as displayed by passive microwave sounding techniques.

Since then, despite attaining the daytime convective *minimum* cycle, fairly respectable convection continues, in fact the Thunderstorms seem to continue to Intensify, as shown in the most recent frames of the IR animated satellite loop and the storm is showing no signs, at present, of loosing it's identity as a cyclone, at least as depressions go.

..

Edited by CoconutCandy (Fri May 18 2012 11:53 AM)

Post Extras

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995

News

⚠ Current Storms

Communication

Storm Data

Content

Follow & Connect