cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Another Pre-Season Storm?
Fri May 25 2012 05:49 PM
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Quote:
Greetings everyone. Looks like NHC is getting bullish on this system (developmentally at least), but not shockingly the models don't have a good handle on this system yet. Can anyone take an educated guess on the upper end this system can obtain based on SST's / climatology?
Based on SSTs along its forecast path, 94L could attain quite a lot, but SSTs are but only one part of a tropical cyclone recipe.
Given that it is very early in the season and SSTs are warm, but not hot, SSTs will act as a limiting factor. Of greater impediment to significant development with 94L will likely be the dry air in the region, plus the ongoing shear, although the latter should be diminishing markedly by the end of the weekend, and even the former might, as well.
Considering its current location, subtropical nature, and forecast course, 94L is probably limited to no greater than Cat 2, at the very high end best. So, while "anything's possible," in reality 94L may have a real challenge even becoming a hurricane of any category, assuming it actually gets a name to begin with.
All in all, as of right now 94L is not even named, with no recon reports, little in the way of solid model outputs, and so forecasting max wind speeds is probably best left for when we have more to go on - take all of the above with some grains of salt ;-)
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