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With today's 5PM NHC #HurricaneBeryl update, the U.S. is now officially in the cone for the first time. Jamaica to Mexico to Texas.

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 308 (Idalia) , Major: 308 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 308 (Idalia) Major: 308 (Idalia)

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Archives 2010s >> 2012 Storm Forum

Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)

Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL

Re: Area of Interest - Subtropical Storm Beryl
Sun May 27 2012 12:28 AM

Subtropical Storm Beryl located near 30.7N 77.4W at 27/04Z continuing to move toward the southwest however motion likely to become more west southwesterly in a few hours as blocking high pressure to the north begins to slide eastward and weaken. Sporadic convection continues to fire closer to the center as slow transition to a tropical system occurs overnight into Sunday afternoon.

Beryl has displayed hints of that slow transition throughout Saturday afternoon and evening. Cloud pattern transitions within and near the center of low pressure suggest subtle changes in the upper environment over Beryl. As Beryl crosses the Gulf Stream on Sunday a boost in convection near the center seems likely, however, with cooler shelf water at the coast, intensity will probably not change much since the period of time that the cyclone will have in a fully tropical state will be quite limited before landfall occurs late Sunday evening.

Earlier Saturday afternoon/evening the weak subsidence zone on the west side of the cyclone displayed a greater component of southwesterly motion with little movement toward the west. Although minor, this southwesterly surge could put the eventual landfall location a little further south toward the St. Augustine area. Beryl is expected to weaken at landfall as it spends a day inland - just how far inland will depend on how quickly the high to the north weakens and shifts eastward. A trough approaching from the central U.S. should move Beryl back into the Atlantic and off to the northeast away from land.

Sustained tropical storm force winds are likely to be confined to a relatively small area near the center - probably within 60 miles. Rip currents are already a serious problem with this system and this hazard will continue into early next week along the coast from central Florida to the Carolinas.

From NHC: "THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED."

ED

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Area of Interest - Tropical Storm Beryl	cieldumort	Sun May 27 2012 12:28 AM
Re: Area of Interest - Subtropical Storm Beryl	Ed Dunham	Sun May 27 2012 12:28 AM
Beryl Likely By Saturday Morning	cieldumort	Fri May 25 2012 10:00 PM
Sub Tropical Storm Beryl Advisories Initiated	danielw	Fri May 25 2012 10:41 PM
Re: Sub Tropical Storm Beryl Advisories Initiated	MichaelA	Sat May 26 2012 02:04 PM
Re: Sub Tropical Storm Beryl Advisories Initiated	k___g	Sat May 26 2012 09:01 PM
Re: Sub Tropical Storm Beryl Advisories Initiated	GlenJohnson	Sat May 26 2012 08:54 PM
Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl Undergoing Phase Transition to Tropical	CoconutCandy	Sat May 26 2012 01:22 PM
Re: Sub-Tropical Storm Beryl Undergoing Phase Transition to Tropical	Fairhopian	Sat May 26 2012 01:52 PM
Invest 94L In Process of Becoming Nameable	cieldumort	Thu May 24 2012 03:06 PM
Re: Invest 94L In Process of Becoming Nameable	MichaelA	Thu May 24 2012 06:31 PM
Re: Invest 94L In Process of Becoming Nameable	Ed Dunham	Thu May 24 2012 08:00 PM
Re: Invest 94L In Process of Becoming Nameable	ftlaudbob	Thu May 24 2012 09:17 PM
Re: Invest 94L In Process of Becoming Nameable	danielw	Thu May 24 2012 10:52 PM
Re: Invest 94L In Process of Becoming Nameable	papaswamp	Fri May 25 2012 03:07 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Florida Invest 94L	cieldumort	Thu May 24 2012 01:16 PM
Re: Area of Interest - Caribbean Invest 94L	danielw	Wed May 23 2012 03:47 AM
Re: Area of Interest - Caribbean Invest 94L	cieldumort	Wed May 23 2012 05:05 AM

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